理想之治与现实之困:土耳其"百年愿景"的经济成效评析
Ideal Governance and Realistic Challenge:An Assessment of Economic Achievements of Türkiye's"Vision 2023"
邹志强 1俞海杰2
作者信息
- 1. 复旦大学国际问题研究院、中东研究中心
- 2. 上海国际问题研究院西亚非洲研究中心
- 折叠
摘要
土耳其"百年愿景"蕴含着正发党和埃尔多安打造"新土耳其"的全面设想,其经济内涵尤为丰富和关键,是土耳其百年强国梦核心理念的历史延续,也是埃尔多安时代国家经济治理成就的象征,并影响着土耳其经济发展模式的选择.围绕"百年愿景"的经济规划,埃尔多安领导下的土耳其政府推出了一系列经济改革与调整措施,以投资与出口为主要经济增长动力,在内外不利局面下努力稳定和推动经济增长.在建国百年到来之际,从土耳其的经济总量、出口额、通胀率和失业率等主要指标看,"百年愿景"所设定的多数宏观经济目标未能如期实现.土耳其经济结构性问题凸显、国内政治纷争和国际环境冲击等内外不利因素,共同阻碍了"百年愿景"经济目标的实现.在2023年大选与建国百年背景下,土耳其经济问题政治化趋势上升,经济困境的延宕制约了其内外转型进程,也势必影响土耳其的国家发展路径及其前景.
Abstract
"Vision 2023"released in 2011 carries the comprehensive vision of AKP and Erdogan to build a"New Türkiye"with fruitful economic connotation.It is the historical continuation of the core concept of Türkiye's centennial dream of becoming a leading power,and a symbol of the achievements of national economic governance in the Erdogan era,and afects Turkiye's economic prospects and development model.In the past decade,Türkiye launched a series of economic development and reform policies,with investment and export as the main driving force of growth,striving to stabilize the economy by the New Economic Policy.On the arrival of 2023,from the perspective of major economic indicators such as GDP,exports,inflation rate,and unemployment rate,most of the macroeconomic goals have not been achieved as scheduled.Given the economic structural problems,domestic political disputes and negative international environment,Türkiye couldn't achieve sustainable and rapid growth at all.Internal and external negative factors jointly hinder the realization of the economic goals of the Vision 2023.In the context of the 2023 general election and the centennial of the Republic of Türkiye,the tendency of the politicization of economic issue is rising,and the delay of economic difficulties restricts its transformation process,which is bound to affect Türkiye's national development paths and prospects.
关键词
中东经济/土耳其/"百年愿景"/埃尔多安/建国百年Key words
Middle East economy/Türkiye/Vision 2023/Erdogan/100th Anniversary of Türkiye引用本文复制引用
基金项目
上海市社会科学基金规划一般项目(2022BGJ008)
出版年
2023
NETL
NSTL
万方数据