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动荡变革期的东北亚地缘政治发展趋势研究

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近年来,东北亚地缘政治发生了新的变化,出现了某种朝向冷战格局发展的趋势.在政治外交上,美日韩合作与朝俄合作针锋相对,彼此战略分歧加大;在军事安全上,朝韩对峙加剧,地区军备竞赛升级;在经贸合作上,美日韩三方构筑"小院高墙",对中俄朝施加压力.东北亚冷战格局趋势已经加大该地区大国竞争、加剧该地区分裂、升级该地区军备竞赛,并进一步破坏了该地区产业链与供应链体系.东北亚地区冷战格局趋势形成的原因包括美国拜登政府对朝鲜半岛政策的转变,韩国尹锡悦政府外交战略转型,以及俄乌冲突的影响.从短期看,该趋势仍会发展下去;但从中长期来看,东北亚地区冷战格局形成的可能性不大.为打破与化解该地区冷战格局趋势,中国应推动大国关系总体稳定、促进中韩关系健康发展、加强东北亚区域合作以及促成朝鲜半岛问题早日和平解决.
Geopolitical Development Trends in Northeast Asia during the Period of Turbulence and Transformation
In recent years,there have been changes towards the sign of the Cold War structure over the geopolitics in Northeast Asia region.Politically and diplomatically,the cooperation among the United States,Japan,and South Korea is in direct opposition to the collaboration between North Korea and Rus-sia,with strategic differences between the two blocs becoming more pronounced.Militarily,the standoff is intensifying,and the regional arms race is escalating.Economically,the construction of"small court-yards with high walls"by the United States,Japan,and South Korea has severely disrupted the regional industrial and supply chain systems.This emerging trend of the Cold War in Northeast Asia is likely to intensify great power competition,exacerbate regional divisions,escalate the arms race,and further dis-rupt industrial and supply chains in the region.The factors contributing to the formation of this Cold War in Northeast Asia include changes in the Biden Administration's policy towards the Korean Peninsula,the strategic pivot of Yoon Suk-yeol's government towards siding with the United States,and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.In the medium to long term,the likelihood of a fully formed Cold War struc-ture in Northeast Asia remains low,but in the short term,this trend is expected to continue.To counter and mitigate this Cold War,China should work to stabilize its relations with major powers,promote healthy development of China-South Korea relations,strengthen regional cooperation in Northeast Asia,and gradually address issues on the Korean Peninsula.

The Northeast Asia regionThe Cold War structureThe cooperation among the United States,Japan,and South KoreaThe cooperation between DPRK and RussiaChina's role

王俊生

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中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

东北亚地区 冷战格局趋势 美日韩合作 朝俄合作 中国角色

中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科

2023DFYSQQY01

2024

延边大学学报(社会科学版)
延边大学

延边大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.421
ISSN:1009-3311
年,卷(期):2024.57(5)