Modeling of Carbon Neutrality Based on Optimal Transport Theory
Global warming has become the focus of today's society.The main cause of global warming is the mas-sive emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.China proposed the target for carbon peak and carbon neutrality,which provides a specific idea for further solving the global warming.Carbon peak refers to the fact that the carbon emission reaches the maximum at a certain time.Carbon neutrality refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emission produced by the country,enterprise,product,activity or individual directly or indirectly within a certain period of time,which can be offset by afforestation,energy conservation and emission reduction to achieve positive and negative offset,and relative"zero emission".Generally,the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality are referred to as the"double carbon"target.How to realize the energy transfer between the source and sink of carbon emission and carbon absorption effectively is the core issue of the research on carbon neutrality theory.The optimal transport theory is to find the optimal distribution calculation of the joint probability distribution field of the source and sink at the minimum cost.This research mode provides a new research perspective for dealing with the carbon neutrality problem.In this paper,the Kantorovich form problem in the optimal transport theory is taken as the basic model,and the content of probability distribution information in mathematical statistics is combined to explore the process of model establishment and method solving about carbon neutrality related problems.Since the acquisition of com-prehensive data on carbon emission and carbon absorption is costly and involves internal information of enter-prise,it is generally not published directly.Therefore,according to the data information obtained in the statisti-cal yearbook,relevant literature and materials,and in combination with the actual development situation,the hypothesis of using Weibull distribution and Normal distribution to describe the distribution form of carbon emission and carbon absorption respectively is put forward in the process of numerical simulation.In the first part,based on the relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors,the exponen-tial distribution family is used to describe the distribution form satisfied by carbon emission.Combining the prior distribution of parameter constructed by the generalized linear model and the posterior idea of Bayesian distribu-tion,the accurate estimation of parameter is obtained according to the Lagrange function and the maximum likeli-hood estimation method.And then the marginal probability distribution satisfied by carbon emission is obtained.At the same time,the distribution of relevant measurable data in the process of carbon absorption is obtained based on the experiment of industry data,so as to know the specific distribution information of carbon source and carbon sink.In the second part,according to the actual change,it is not difficult to find that the balanced development and path selection between carbon emission and carbon absorption can provide a reasonable plan and effective strategy for achieving the target of carbon neutrality,which is consistent with the idea of energy conservation in the optimal transport theory.Therefore,the distribution information of carbon emission and carbon absorption is considered as the marginal distribution,and the form of Kantorovich problem in the optimal transport theory is integrated to construct the optimal transport model with the constraint of carbon neutrality,which can express and deal with carbon related problems in a clearer way.In the third part,in order to modify the model,the regression analysis method is used to test the relationship between target system and prediction system,and the system parameter is fed back and adjusted according to the result obtained by minimizing the loss function,so as to obtain a better transmission system.In the last part,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and method are verified by numerical simulation.In this process,the coupling distribution between carbon source and carbon sink and the target optimal value can be obtained by using the Sinkhorn fast algorithm.At the same time,the specific transport plan between them can be visually displayed by the transport diagram.In summary,the optimal transport theoretical model with carbon neutrality as a constraint can describe the correlation between carbon emission and carbon absorption reasonably and effectively.At the same time,the specific transport plan between the two can be solved by using a fast algorithm,which ensures the fitness of the solution for the established model.It is worth noting that the proposed idea provides an effective path selection and concrete implementation strategy for the final realization of carbon neutrality target,which has the theoretical significance and application value for quantitative analysis about related problems.In the following research,the carbon related issue will be considered in combination with the dynamic evolution,so that the distribution information is closer to the actual complex situation of the development and change of carbon emission and carbon absorption.
万方数据
维普
