A fast orbital uncertainty propagation method is proposed based on semi-analytical method and spherical simplex sigma-point selection unscented transformation.Firstly,on consideration of the J2 perturbation and atmospheric drag,an analytical model with secular term,long periodic term and short periodic term of orbital elements is constructed as the dynamics model for fast orbital elements propagation.Subsequently,the spherical simplex sigma-point selection unscented transformation is chosen to propagate the initial orbital uncertainty.Then,modification is done to adjust the sigma-points according to the Gauss variational equations and the characteristics of the spherical simplex sigma-points to estimate the probability density function of the final orbital uncertainty.Finally,the proposed semi-analytical method is combined with the Gaussian mixture model to improve the accuracy.In the simulation analysis,the computational efficiency of the proposed orbital uncertainty estimation method is analyzed compared with that of the traditional unscented transformation method.Then,the accuracy of these methods is evaluated based on the likelihood agreement measure.The results show that the calculation efficiency of the proposed method is improved compared to the traditional unscented transformation method,and is with appropriate accuracy.
关键词
轨道预报/不确定性传播/轨道要素/球形单边采样/无迹变换/高斯和模型
Key words
Orbit prediction/Uncertainty propagation/Orbital elements/Spherical simplex sigma-point selection/Unscented transformation/Gaussian mixture model
维普
万方数据