首页|新疆旅游经济贡献空间非均衡与动态演化研究——基于Dagum基尼系数与Markov链估计

新疆旅游经济贡献空间非均衡与动态演化研究——基于Dagum基尼系数与Markov链估计

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结合投入产出法和旅游剥离系数法测算了新疆各地州旅游业增加值基础数据,基于Dagum基尼系数和Markov链估计方法,探讨了2001-2019年新疆旅游经济贡献的空间非均衡特征及动态演变.研究表明:新疆旅游经济贡献空间分布表现为"北高-东低-南低"的格局,且主要发生在东北-西南方向上,呈显著的空间非均衡特征;其中,旅游经济贡献高的核心地州有乌鲁木齐、伊犁州直、昌吉州、阿勒泰、吐鲁番等.Dagum基尼系数及分解研究发现新疆旅游经济贡献空间非均衡的状态仍是旅游经济发展的主流状态,组内差距的贡献缩小引致旅游经济贡献趋向平衡,而空间非均衡的主要来源是组间差距;进一步解构新疆旅游经济贡献内部动态演进,发现新疆旅游经济贡献水平存在"两头固化,中间活跃"的演化特征,内部状态流动性较低,反映出区域旅游经济跃迁需要具备发展基础和长期积累的条件.基于此,研究提出了"缩差距、破固化、强投入、先人才"的建议.
Research on the Spatial Disequilibrium and Dynamic Evolution of Tourism Economy Contribution in Xinjiang—Based on Dagum Gini Coefficient and Markov Chain Estimation
Combined with input-output method and tourism stripping coefficient method,this paper calculates the basic data of tourism added value in different regions of Xinjiang,and based on the Dagum Gini coefficient and Markov chain estimation method,the spatial disequilibrium characteristics and dynamic evolution of tourism economic contribution in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2019 are discussed.The results show that the spatial distribution of tourism economic contribution in Xinjiang is"high in the north-low in the east-low in the south",and it mainly occurs in the northeast-southwest direction,showing a significant spatial disequilibrium.Among them,the core regions with high tourism economic contribution are Urumqi Prefecture,Yili Prefecture,Changji Prefecture,Altay Prefecture,Turpan Prefecture and other prefectures.Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition study found that the spatial disequilibrium of tourism economic contribution is still the mainstream state of tourism economic development in Xinjiang.The reduction of intragroup gap leads to the trend of tourism economic contribution balance,and the main source of spatial disequilibrium is the gap between groups.Further deconstructing the internal dynamic evolution of Xinjiang's tourism economic contribution,it is found that the level of Xinjiang's tourism economic contribution has an evolutionary feature of"two-end consolidation,middle activity",and the internal state mobility is low,reflecting that the regional tourism economic transition needs to have the development foundation and long-term accumulation conditions.In order to improve the economic contribution of tourism and its added value,the study proposes narrowing the gap,breaking the solidification,strengthening investment,and prioritising talents.

tourism economic contributiontourism added valueMarkov chainGini coefficient

闫敏、王冉

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伊犁师范大学 旅游与历史文化学院,新疆 伊宁 835000

伊犁师范大学 伊犁文旅融合研究中心,新疆 伊宁 835000

旅游经济贡献 旅游业增加值 Markov链 基尼系数

2020年度新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目2018年度伊犁师范大学哈萨克斯坦国别研究中心课题

20BJY0482018HSKGBYB002

2024

伊犁师范大学学报
伊犁师范学院

伊犁师范大学学报

影响因子:0.171
ISSN:2097-0544
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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