Epidemic characteristics and grey model quantitative prediction of newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases in Longgang District,Shenzhen,2015-2022
Objective To explore the epidemic characteristics,determination trend and quantitative pre-diction of newly discovered cases of HIV/AIDS in order to provide reference for scientific prevention and con-trol.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of newly discov-ered AIDS cases in Longgang District,Shenzhen from 2015 to 2022,and a grey mean GM(1,1)model was es-tablished with buffer operators to determine the trend and predict the number of cases.Results From 2015 to 2022,a total of 2 722(1 611/1 111)new HIV/AIDS cases were identified in Longgang District,with an av-erage annual reported number of(340±25)cases.The majority of cases were male(92.43％),aged 20～＜40 years(71.49％),unmarried(63.67％),with high school education or above(68.59％),engaged in commer-cial service,housework,or unemployed(62.12％),and household registration outside the city(80.79％).Male-to-male sexual transmission(68.41％)was the primary route of infection.Under the age of 50,male-to-male transmission predominated,while heterosexual transmission was more common above age 50.Medical in-stitution detection(56.61％)and counseling detection(25.24％)were the main detection methods.The epi-demic trends were as follows:there was an increasing trend in the distribution of cases for both 40 and 50 years old(xtrend=4.854,P＜0.05)and＞50 years old(x2trend=25.241,P＜0.001);The distribution of housework and unemployment cases showed an increasing trend(xtrend=6.533,P＜0.05).The detection distribution of other patients in medical institutions showed an increasing trend(x2trend=20.558,P＜0.001)and the distribu-tion of counseling tests showed a decreasing trend(x2trend=10.562,P＜0.05).The proportion of AIDS in new-ly discovered cases showed an increasing trend(xtrend=8.382,P＜0.05).With the increase of age in males,the proportion of same-sex transmission decreased while heterosexual transmission increased(x2trend=252.478,P＜0.001).In unmarried,divorced or widowed men,married or with spouses,the proportion of same-sex transmission decreased and the proportion of heterosexual transmission increased with the presence of spouses(Xtrend=155.454,P＜0.001).The weakening operator GM(1,1)grey model demonstrated good accuracy,showing a stable epidemic trend in recent years(development coefficient＜0.01).The model predicts 2023 case numbers with＞95％accuracy,making it suitable for forecasting newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases.Conclusion While the AIDS epidemic situation in Longgang District remains stable,but there is an increasing trend of middle-aged and elderly cases and symptom-based diagnoses at the AIDS stage.It is necessary to con-tinue to implement the expanded detection strategy to detect cases early,and carry out comprehensive interven-tion and prevention measures for key groups.Multi-channel education,especially in the school,should be strengthened to improved the national AIDS awareness and protection skills.Grey prediction model can effec-tively determine AIDS epidemic trends and provides quantitative predictions,offering valuable guidance for risk assessment and epidemic prevention and control.
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