Analysis and prediction study on the allocation of physician-nurse ratio in different regions of China from 2010 to 2021
Objective To analyze the equity in the allocation of licensed physicians and registered nurses,the physician-to-nurse ratio,and their development trends across regions in China,and to propose subsequent recommendations for health resource allocation based on the analysis results.Methods The Gini coefficient was used to assess the equity in resource allocation.The GM model,ARIMA model and combined prediction model were adopted for data prediction.Results The equity in the allocation of licensed physicians and regis-tered nurses based on population was superior to that based on economic and geographical factors.Across re-gions in China,the allocation of licensed physicians and registered nurses based on population was fair and gradually improving.In the central region,the allocation of licensed physicians and registered nurses based on geography was fair,while in other regions,it was unfair.The variability in the equity of geographical alloca-tion across regions was minimal.The allocation of licensed physicians and registered nurses based on economic factors was fair across regions,but the equity in the central region declined.All models demonstrated high pre-diction accuracy for licensed physicians and registered nurses,and the model predictions indicated that the phy-sician-to-nurse ratio across regions in China would remain less than 1∶2 in 2025.Conclusion It is recom-mended to focus on differentiated resource allocation,with an emphasis on increasing the number of registered nurses and further improving their quality on the basis of ensuring sufficient quantity.Attention should also be given to the leading role of the government in resource allocation.
health resource allocationequityphysician-nurse ratioGini coefficientprediction model
万方数据
