Application of Grey GM(1,1)Prediction Model in Single-Disease Operation Management——A Case Study of Gastric Cancer
Objective To construct a grey GM(1,1)prediction model based on medical index data such as the incidence cases number,average cost,average hospitalization day,drug cost ratio,and material cost ratio for gastric cancer,to analyze the trend of changes in medical business,aiming to provide methodological basis for single-disease management.Methods The grey GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed by using the data of incidence cases number,average cost,average hospitalization day,drug and material cost ratio for gastric cancer in our hospital from 2013 to 2018.Posterior difference ratio C value and small error probability P value were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model,and relative error and rank deviation were used to evaluate the fitting effect of the model.The prediction effect of the grey GM(1,1)model was verified through the data from 2020-2023,and the medical business indicators for 2024-2025 were predicted based on the adjusted model.Results The grey GM(1,1)prediction model constructed in this study performed well in predicting the average cost,average hospitalization day and drug cost ratio.According to this model,it is predicted that by 2025,the average cost,average hospitalization day and drug cost ratio for gastric cancer can be at 71285.56 yuan,14.22 d and 13.09%,respectively.Conclusion The grey GM(1,1)model can fit well with the changing trends of the average cost,average hospitalization day,and drug cost ratio for gastric cancer.The model predicts that the average cost shows an increasing trend year by year,while the average hospitalization day and the drug cost ratio both show a decreasing trend annually.This model can provide a theoretical basis for medical quality monitoring of single-disease and improving medical operational efficiency.
万方数据
维普
