Tail Risk,Production Network and Industrial Value Added Fluctuation
This paper constructs a multi-sector general equilibrium model of production net-work incorporating tail risks across industries,from which technical distortion network effects and allocation distortion network effects of value added fluctuation caused by industrial tail risk conta-gion are decomposed.Then,using the input-output data of China from ICIO database from 1998 to 2020,the paper empirically tests the impact of the two types of distortion network effects on in-dustrial value added fluctuation.The research reveals the following findings:Production networks can amplify and transmit tail risks across industries,leading to technical and allocation distortion network effects,with allocation distortion network effect having stronger negative impact on indus-trial value added fluctuation.Demand-side shocks in downstream industries are transmitted to the upstream industries through production networks,intensifying the impact of technical distortion network effects on upstream industries.Industries characterized by high technological sophistica-tion,balanced production network structures,and high substitution elasticity of intermediate goods are easier to resist risk shocks.During periods of extreme event shocks,the negative impacts of both the distortion network effects are more significant.The study suggests that policymakers should recognize the role of production networks in transmitting risks and take measures for risk prevention and mitigation to achieve economic stability.
万方数据
维普
