HAIL DISASTER RESEARCH ON POTENTIAL PREDICTION METHODS AND OPERATION INDEXES IN XUNDIAN TOBACCO PLANTING AREA IN 2023
A rare severe convective weather process with the hailstone and gale occurred over Xundian from 10 to 11 August 2016.the hailstone potential prediction method was extracted from the lifting conditions,energy and water vapor conditions by using the sounding data and numerical prediction products and the Doppler radar echo characteristics of this process were analyzed.The results show that:The hailstone potential prediction method,which is derived from the distance weight interpolation method of sounding data from Kunming and Weining sta-tions,combined with the ground aerial reality and numerical forecast products,has a good indication significance for the hailstone process on August 10 and 11,and the TS scores were 1.0,0.968 and 0.903 respectively in the forecast test from June to August.The characteristic analysis of radar echo shows that the development time of echo before hail fall,the VIL,the VIL jump during hail fall,the convergence intensity of cloud and other parameters have a positive correlation with hail fall intensity.Taking ▽H≥1 km(▽H=H45dBz-H0)as the general opera-tion index,▽H≥1km maintaining 2 sweep time or ▽H≥1.5 km as the emergency operation index has a good hail suppression effect.
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万方数据
