云南省人均GDP变化对自然灾害风险影响的研究
STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF INCOME CHANGES ON NATURAL DISASTER RISK IN YUNNAN PROVINCE
王波 1何锋 2刘洪江3
作者信息
- 1. 云南省国土资源规划设计研究院,云南 昆明 650032
- 2. 云南财经大学物流与管理工程学院,云南 昆明6500221
- 3. 乐山师范学院旅游与地理科学学院,四川乐山 614000
- 折叠
摘要
基于1970-2015年云南省面板数据,采用广义最小二乘法(GLS)和负二项回归模型,深入分析了收入变化对自然灾害风险的影响机制.研究发现,收入变化对不同类型自然灾害风险的影响呈现显著的非线性特征.洪涝和大风灾害风险随收入增加呈现倒U型变化,拐点分别出现在人均GDP433元和508元处,表明经济发展初期的粗放增长加剧了灾害风险,而后期的防灾投入显著降低了风险水平.地震灾害则表现为U型关系,拐点出现在1510元处,反映了城市化进程中人口集聚效应的影响.实证结果还揭示了城镇化的重要调节作用,城镇化率每提高1个百分点,灾害风险降低0.32％.稳健性检验从计量方法、样本选择和变量替代3个维度验证了研究结论的可靠性.这些发现为制定差异化的防灾减灾政策提供了重要依据.
Abstract
Based on panel data from Yunnan Province between 1970 and 2015,an empirical study was conducted using Generalized Least Squares(GLS)and negative binomial regression models to analyze the impact mecha-nisms of income changes on natural disaster risks.The study revealed significant nonlinear effects of income chan-ges on different types of natural disaster risks.For floods and gales,an inverted U-shaped relationship was iden-tified,with turning points occurring at per capita GDP levels of 433 yuan and 508 yuan respectively,indicating that extensive economic growth initially increased disaster risks while later disaster prevention investments signifi-cantly reduced risk levels.Earthquake risks exhibited a U-shaped relationship with a turning point at 1,510 yuan,reflecting the population agglomeration effect during urbanization.The empirical analysis further revealed that urbanization played a significant moderating role,with disaster risks decreasing by 0.32％for each percent-age point increase in urbanization rate.Robustness tests verified the reliability of research findings through three dimensions:econometric methods,sample selection,and variable substitution.These findings provided impor-tant evidence for developing differentiated disaster prevention and mitigation policies.
关键词
收入—灾害关系/自然灾害风险/区域防灾韧性/云南省Key words
income-disaster relationship/natural disaster risk/regional disaster resilience/Yunnan Province引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据