Based on panel data from Yunnan Province between 1970 and 2015,an empirical study was conducted using Generalized Least Squares(GLS)and negative binomial regression models to analyze the impact mecha-nisms of income changes on natural disaster risks.The study revealed significant nonlinear effects of income chan-ges on different types of natural disaster risks.For floods and gales,an inverted U-shaped relationship was iden-tified,with turning points occurring at per capita GDP levels of 433 yuan and 508 yuan respectively,indicating that extensive economic growth initially increased disaster risks while later disaster prevention investments signifi-cantly reduced risk levels.Earthquake risks exhibited a U-shaped relationship with a turning point at 1,510 yuan,reflecting the population agglomeration effect during urbanization.The empirical analysis further revealed that urbanization played a significant moderating role,with disaster risks decreasing by 0.32％for each percent-age point increase in urbanization rate.Robustness tests verified the reliability of research findings through three dimensions:econometric methods,sample selection,and variable substitution.These findings provided impor-tant evidence for developing differentiated disaster prevention and mitigation policies.
income-disaster relationshipnatural disaster riskregional disaster resilienceYunnan Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
