STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF INCOME CHANGES ON NATURAL DISASTER RISK IN YUNNAN PROVINCE
Based on panel data from Yunnan Province between 1970 and 2015,an empirical study was conducted using Generalized Least Squares(GLS)and negative binomial regression models to analyze the impact mecha-nisms of income changes on natural disaster risks.The study revealed significant nonlinear effects of income chan-ges on different types of natural disaster risks.For floods and gales,an inverted U-shaped relationship was iden-tified,with turning points occurring at per capita GDP levels of 433 yuan and 508 yuan respectively,indicating that extensive economic growth initially increased disaster risks while later disaster prevention investments signifi-cantly reduced risk levels.Earthquake risks exhibited a U-shaped relationship with a turning point at 1,510 yuan,reflecting the population agglomeration effect during urbanization.The empirical analysis further revealed that urbanization played a significant moderating role,with disaster risks decreasing by 0.32％for each percent-age point increase in urbanization rate.Robustness tests verified the reliability of research findings through three dimensions:econometric methods,sample selection,and variable substitution.These findings provided impor-tant evidence for developing differentiated disaster prevention and mitigation policies.
income-disaster relationshipnatural disaster riskregional disaster resilienceYunnan Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
