云南省人口—资源—经济—环境系统耦合协调发展研究
RESEARCH ON THE COUPLING AND COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION-RESOURCE-ECONOMY-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM IN YUNNAN PROVINCE
杨静 1赵文娟 1杨开路 1毛翰臣1
作者信息
- 1. 云南大学地球科学学院,云南 昆明 650500
- 折叠
摘要
通过构建云南省人口、资源、经济和环境4个子系统及其复合系统的协调发展指标体系,基于耦合协调模型、重心计算模型等测算2010-2021年云南省综合发展水平、耦合协调度,对研究时段内各州(市)的子系统的发展类型演变格局进行探索分析,并利用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测云南省未来10年(2022-2031年)的耦合协调度发展趋势.研究结果表明:(1)云南省的综合发展水平和耦合协调度较好,研究时段内由濒临失调转换为勉强协调,呈现出不断优化的趋势,各州(市)人口—资源—经济—环境系统耦合协调度的变化趋势与全省耦合协调度的整体趋势基本保持一致;(2)研究时段内云南省各州(市)子系统滞后问题随时间的变化而变化,子系统重心和复合系统耦合协调度重心大致向东偏移,但偏移幅度不大,其演变比较平稳;(3)未来10年云南省四系统的耦合协调度水平呈现稳步上升趋势,并将长期处于初级协调阶段,至2030年向中级协调阶段过渡,未来仍需要很长一段时间才能实现高水平的协调.
Abstract
By constructing a coordination development index system for the population,resources,economy and environment subsystems,as well as their composite system in Yunnan Province,the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination of Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2021 were calculated based on coupling coordi-nation models and centroid calculation models.The evolution pattern of the development types of subsystems of va-rious prefectures(cities)during the study period was explored and analyzed.Additionally,the grey model GM(1,1)prediction was used to forecast the development trend of the coupling coordination of Yunnan Province for next 10 years(2022-2031).The research results show that:(1)The comprehensive development level and coupling coordination of Yunnan Province are relatively good.During the study period,it changed from being on the brink of imbalance to barely coordinated,showing a trend of continuous optimization.The variation trend of the coupling coordination of the population-economy-resources-environment system in various prefectures(cities)is basically consistent with the overall trend of the provincial coupling coordination;(2)The lagging problems of the subsystems of various prefectures(cities)in Yunnan Province have changed over time.The cen-troid of the subsystems and the centroid of the coupling coordination of the composite system have generally shif-ted to the east,but the extent of the shift is not significant,and the evolution is relatively stable.(3)Over next 10 years,the coupling coordination level of the four systems in Yunnan Province shows a steady upward trend and will remain at the primary coordination stage for a long time.By 2030,it will transition to the intermediate coordi-nation stage.It will still take a long time in the future to achieve a high level of coordination.
关键词
云南省/人口—资源—经济—环境系统/耦合协调度/协调发展Key words
Yunnan Province/population-resource-economy-environment system/coupling coordination/coordinated development引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据