Monte Carlo Prediction Method for Electric Vehicle Charging Loads
With the vigorous development of electric vehicles,a large number of electric vehicle charging loads are connected to the power grid,bringing great challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid.In this work,the influencing factors of electric vehicle charging load were analyzed from two aspects,namely,individual electric vehicles and electric vehicle clusters,and the correlation between factors was quantified using gray correlation analysis;a prediction model of electric vehicle charging load was established based on Monte Carlo simulation algorithm,and the charging loads of buses,cabs,and private cars were predicted based on parameters such as the number of electric vehicles,travel demand,and so on.Simulation results show that the proposed method can accurately express the charging characteristics of various types of electric vehicles,provide an effective reference basis for electric vehicle charging strategy,and promote the safe and stable operation of the power grid.
Electric vehicleGray correlation analysisMonte Carlo simulationLoad forecastingState of charge(SOC)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
