With the rapid development of the modern new economy,the medium-and long-term power demand forecasting of new power systems has become a new challenge.In this paper,combining the growth characteristics of power demand,modeling the power demand development trend by using the nonlinear fitting of the S-shaped growth curve,and correcting the model by considering the saturated power,a medium and long-term load forecasting model with a generalized Sigmoid function is proposed.The model is verified to be generalized and valid through the arithmetic example of Yunnan historical data,which can provide a reference basis for subsequent medium-and long-term power demand forecasting.
关键词
新型电力系统/电力需求预测/S型生长曲线/非线性拟合
Key words
new-type power system/electricity demand forecasting/S-growth curve/nonlinear fitting
维普
万方数据