Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Thelephora ganbajun in Yunnan Based on MaxEnt Model
[Purpose]To clarify the suitable habitat of Thelephora ganbajun in Yunnan,and to ex-plore the effects of future climate change on the distribution and habitat suitability of this species.[Methods]The dimension of soil and climate components was reduced using principal component analysis,and the selected ecological factors were input into the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to predict suitable habitat of T.ganbajun.Knife cutting method(Jackknife)and response curve were used to identify the key ecological factors and suitable threshold range influencing species distribu-tion.ArcGIS was used to carry out spatial statistical analysis and fitness classification,and to study the changing trend of species distribution range under future climatic conditions.[Results]The area under curve(AUC)of the training set and test set of the MaxEnt model was 0.884 and 0.911,re-spectively.Jackknife analysis showed that annual precipitation,isothermality and slope were the key factors affecting the species distribution of T.ganbajun.The distribution of the species would be af-fected by climate change in the future.Compared to the present,by the 21 st century(2090s),under the SSP126 scenario,the suitable habitat loss and the new area of T.ganbajun in Yunnan was 1.09×104 and 2.60×103 km2,respectively;under the SSP370 scenario,the loss and the new area of suitable hab-itats for T.ganbajun was 1.21 × 104 km2 and 5.20×103 km2,respectively.[Conclusion]Future cli-mate change will result in a reduction of the suitable area for T.ganbajun in Yunnan,with the central Yunnan region being the most severely affected by climate change.
Thelephora ganbajunhabitat suitabilitygeographic distributionclimate changeMax-Ent model
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NSTL
万方数据
