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义马市地质灾害易发性评价模型对比研究

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为了更准确地实现综合地质灾害易发性评价,以义马市为例,开展不同类型地质灾害区域地质灾害易发性综合评价的研究.构建以坡度、地形起伏度、坡向、坡型、岩体组合、距河流距离、土地利用类型、距道路距离8项评价指标组成的评价体系,并分别采用单一模型(层次分析(AHP)、频率比(FR)、信息量(Ⅰ))和耦合模型(层次分析—逻辑回归(AHP-LR)、频率比—逻辑回归(FR-LR)、信息量—逻辑回归(I-LR))进行地质灾害易发性评价,最后用接受者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)精度检验.结果显示,6种评价模型得到的地质灾害高易发区和中易发区频率比值之和占总频率比值均超过80%,成功率均大于0.73;AHP-LR、FR-LR、I-LR耦合模型与单一模型相比具有更高的成功率,表明耦合LR的模型比单一模型对地质灾害易发性的评价更有效.
Comparative Study of Geological Hazard Susceptibility Evaluation Models in Yima City
In order to realize the comprehensive evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility more accu-rately,taking Yima City as an example,the study on the comprehensive evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility in different types of geological hazards was carried out.Construct an evaluation system consisting of eight evaluation indexes:slope,relief,slope direction,slope type,engineering geolog-ical rock group,distance from river,land use type and distance from road.A single model(AHP),fre-quency ratio(FR),information volume(Ⅰ)and coupled model(AHP-logistic regression(AHP-LR),frequency ratio-logistic regression(FR-LR),information volume-logistic regression(I-LR))were used to evaluate the vulnerability of geological hazards.Finally,the accuracy of receiver operating character-istic curve(ROC curve)was tested.The results show that the sum of the frequency ratios of the high and medium geological disaster prone areas obtained by the six evaluation models accounts for more than 80%of the total frequency ratios,and the success rate is greater than 0.73.The coupled model of AHP-LR,FR-LR and I-LR has a higher success rate than the single model,indicating that the coupled LR model is more effective than the single model in evaluating the geological hazard susceptibility.

Susceptibility evaluationAnalytic Hierarchy ProcessFrequency ratioInformation vol-umeLogistic regressionGeographic information system(GIS)

丁丽、丁超、宋鹏飞

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河南省地质局矿产资源勘查中心,河南郑州 450000

易发性评价 层次分析法 频率比 信息量 逻辑回归 GIS

中央财政自然灾害防治体系建设补助资金资助项目(2021)

2021410036

2024

云南师范大学学报(自然科学版)
云南师范大学

云南师范大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.54
ISSN:1007-9793
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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