Simulation of the Potential Range of Sect.Proliferae of the Genus Primula in Primulaceae
The sect.Proliferae(Primula)is an important flower germplasm resource with high orna-mental value and medicinal value.Based on the information of 204 distribution points of 19 species and 1 subspecies of sect.Proliferae and 12 high-resolution environmental variables,this study used the maximum entropy(Maxent)model to predict the potential suitable distribution area of sect.Prolif-erae species in China,analyzed the changes of geographical spatial distribution pattern under different climatic and environmental scenarios from history to future,and determined the main environmental influencing factors.The results show that the temperature annual range,annual precipitation,minimum monthly average radiation,isothermality,and altitude are the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of the sect.Proliferae,and the cumulative contribution rate is up to 85%.Cur-rently,the southwest of China is the main suitable distribution area of the sect.P roli ferae,with a total area of about 9.535 × 105 km2,and the highly suitable areas are concentrated in the Hengduan Mountains.In general,from the glacial period to the future(2050 and 2070),the distribution center of potential suitable habitats in the sect.Proliferae shows a trend of shifting to high latitudes.During the last inter-glacial period,the population of sect.Proliferae experienced a large-scale contraction,retrea-ting to Yunnan and southern Sichuan.After entering the last glacial maximum,the population expand-ed northward again.Under different carbon dioxide concentration paths in the future,the area of poten-tial suitable distribution area of sect.Proliferae species continues to expand northward,but with future land use changes and human interference,some suitable habitats may be lost.
Sect.ProliferaeMaximum entropy modelPotential distribution patternClimate change