Simulation of Spring Medium and Long Term Runoff in the Upper Jinsha River Basin Considering Meteorological Factors
The hydrological and meteorological factors in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are complex,making it difficult to predict incoming water.This article analyzes the characteristics of precipitation and temperature changes in the upper reaches of Jinsha River,and identifies the key factors affecting temperature and precipitation changes.It studies the correlation between key factors and spring runoff,the correlation between spring runoff and meteorological station observation data,identifies meteorological factors that affect spring runoff,and builds climate models for predicting runoff.The results show that the interannual fluctuations of spring precipitation in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are slow,with a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in March,and an increasing trend of precipitation in April and May.The temperature in each month of the same year showed a warming trend,with the average temperature rising the fastest in March,and the rising speed in April and May was comparable.The positive correlation between monthly average minimum temperature and climate indicators is the best,followed by May precipitation,and the correlation between maximum temperature is relatively low.The positive correlation between runoff and climate indicators at Shigu Hydrological Station in March and April is the best.The equation of the forecasting model can predict runoff with an accuracy of over 95%compared to the actual runoff,and both can pass the 0.05 confidence.
the upper and middle reaches of Jinsha Riverspring runoffmeteorological elementhydrological forecastingclimate model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
