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拿什么留住边民:基于云南3个边境县的混合研究

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边民居留稳定性对于保障边境安全、稳定和繁荣具有重要现实意义。文章从新劳动力迁移理论出发,基于个人因素和家庭因素两个维度选取6个条件变量,对云南省三个边境县展开问卷调查,运用fsQCA、logistic、边民访谈和地区个案进行混合方法的三角互证,探究边民居留稳定性影响因素与组态效应。研究发现:边民迁移动力为生存发展型,阻力源自家庭照护与知能不足,迁移地点倾向省外。组态分析得出边民高居留稳定性的组态包括"长者稳健""婚姻民族黏性""低知女性驻留"。logistic回归分析复证年龄、民族、婚姻状况对边民居留稳定性的作用显著。其政策寓意在于:"产业强边"应侧重民族文化产业;"社保稳边"应强化普惠适老型和家庭亲厚型社保;"教育兴边"需关注女性受教育权和发展权;"移民实边"目标可聚焦"新边民"的居留韧性。文章据此构建"产业—社保—教育"复合助推策略,以"产业强边"为主体,以"社保稳边"与"教育兴边"为两翼,介绍各地典型做法与经验,提供方法菜单,以助推边民居留。
How to Retain Border Residents:A Mixed Study Based on Investigations in Three Border Counties in Yunnan
The stability of border residents is of great practical significance to ensuring border security,stability and prosperity.This article begins with the new labor migration theory,selects 6 conditional variables based on the two dimensions of personal factors and family factors,conducts a questionnaire survey in three border counties in Yunnan Province and uses fsQCA,logistic,interviews with border residents and regional cases to conduct triangular mutual verification of mixed methods so as to explore the influencing factors and configuration effects of border residents'residence stability.The study finds that the motivation for migration of border residents is for survival and development,resistance to migration comes from family concerns and lack of knowledge and that migration locations tend to be outside of Yunnan province.The configuration analysis shows that the configurations of border residents with high residence stability include"elderly stability","marriage and ethnic stickiness"and"low-educated women staying".Logistic regression analysis shows that age,ethnicity,and marital status at re-certification have significant effects on the residence stability of border residents.The policy implications include"strengthening the border through industry",focusing on national cultural industries,"stabilizing the border through social security",enhancing inclusive social security that is suitable for the elderly and family-friendly,"developing the border through education"and highlighting women's rights of education and development.The goal of"immigration to the border"can focus on the resilience of"new border residents".Based on this,the article constructs a composite boosting strategy of"industry-social security-education",with"industry strengthening the border"as the main body,"social security stabilizing the border"and"education developing the border"as the two wings.It introduces typical practices and experiences from various places and provides a menu of methods to promote the residence of border residents.

border residentsresidence stabilityfsQCAlogistic regressioncomposite boosting strategy

罗红霞、金国富、谭立力

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云南大学政府管理学院

边民 居留稳定性 fsQCA logistic回归 复合助推

国家社科基金项目中国专业学位案例中心案例项目

20BZZ024ZT-211067303

2024

云南行政学院学报
云南行政学院

云南行政学院学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.413
ISSN:1671-0681
年,卷(期):2024.26(1)
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