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电力灵活性需求视角下中国气电产业的发展空间

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[目的]随着中国加快建设新型能源体系,天然气发电对未来天然气产业及电力系统的支撑作用凸显,但天然气发电的未来发展空间仍缺乏行业共识.合理评估天然气发电的发展空间,将有利于中国新型电力系统建设,以及天然气发电政策的制定.[方法]在分析天然气发电、煤电灵活性改造、抽水蓄能、新型储能、智能电网等不同灵活性调峰措施优劣势的基础上,明确了天然气发电产业未来主要作为电源侧灵活性资源、承担调峰作用这一发展定位.综合利用特尔菲法、学习曲线法等定性、定量方法,分情景预测中国可再生能源发电装机规模,得出对电力灵活性资源的总体需求,进一步研判煤电灵活性改造、抽水蓄能、新型储能等技术未来能够提供的灵活调峰能力,最终计算中国天然气发电装机未来需求空间.[结果]预测结果显示,2030年、2040年、2060年中国电力系统需要电力灵活性资源分别为14×108kW、27×108~28×108 kW、37×108~40×108 kW,天然气发电作为电力灵活性资源之一,其需求空间将逐步扩大,2025年、2030年预计约1.6 ×108 kW、2.2 ×108 kW,2050年需求达峰为3 ×108~4 ×108 kW.[结论]建议未来天然气发电找准定位,注意与天然气消费、可再生能源协同发展,并积极推动完善市场机制,体现产业自身价值,有效破解产业碳排放强度较高及核心装备自主能力较低的困境.(图9,表2,参23)
Development space of China's natural gas power generation industry from the perspective of power flexibility demand
[Objective]As China is accelerating its construction of a new energy system,the role of natural gas power generation in supporting the future natural gas industry and power system is becoming increasingly prominent.However,the industry lacks a consensus on the future development space of natural gas power generation.A reasonable assessment of the development space of natural gas power generation will facilitate the construction of the new power system and the formulation of policies on natural gas power generation.[Methods]Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various flexible peak shaving measures such as natural gas power generation,coal power flexibility transformation,pumped storage,new energy storage,and smart grid,the future development orientation of taking natural gas power generation industry as a flexibility resource on the power supply side to realize the peak shaving was determined.By applying various qualitative and quantitative methods such as the Delphi method and the learning curve method,prediction of the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China under different scenarios was carried out.The overall demand for power flexibility resources was obtained.The flexible peak shaving capabilities of coal power flexibility transformation,pumped storage,new energy storage,and other new energy storage technologies in the future were further studied.The future demand space of China's installed capacity of natural gas power generation was calculated.[Results]The forecast results show that China's power system requires approximately 14×108 kW,27×108-28×108 kW and 37×108-40×108 kW of power flexibility resources in 2030,2040,and 2060 respectively.As one of the power flexibility resources,natural gas power generation has a gradually expanding demand that is expected to reach approximately 1.6×108 kW,2.2×108 kW in 2030,and a peak value of approximately 3×108-4×108 kW in 2050.[Conclusion]It is suggested to accurately find the orientation of the natural gas power generation industry,consider the coordinated development of the industry with natural gas consumption and renewable energy,and actively promote the improvement of market mechanisms,thus reflecting the value of the industry and effectively solving the dilemma of high carbon emission intensity and low capacities for independent research and development of core equipment(9 Figures,2 Tables,23 References)

natural gas power generationpower flexibilityenergy storageflexible coal powerdevelopment space

郭胜伟、徐立昊、张胜军、门秀杰、孔盈皓

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中国海油集团能源经济研究院

天然气发电 电力灵活性 储能 灵活煤电 发展空间

中国海油规划研究项目

CNOOC-2022-G-Y03

2024

油气储运
中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司

油气储运

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.094
ISSN:1000-8241
年,卷(期):2024.43(1)
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