首页|基于TOPSIS的原油储罐风险分级预警

基于TOPSIS的原油储罐风险分级预警

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[目的]原油储罐目前普遍趋向于大型化、集中化.由于原油理化性质与储罐材料构件的复杂性,造成储罐的高风险性,需提高储罐罐区风险管理能力.应用现有主流的基于风险的检验技术(Risk Based Inspection,RBI)对储罐风险进行评价较为复杂,其对于现场数据要求较多,且设备因素评价中缺少针对储罐相关附件的影响分析.[方法]提出一种原油储罐分级预警体系,通过建立基于逼近理想解排序方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的储罐风险分级预警体系模型,实现对储罐风险的综合评估与分级预警:①建立储罐风险评估指标体系,包括人、设备、环境及管理因素4个一级指标以及若干二级、三级指标;②应用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)对不同层次指标进行赋权,并利用TOPSIS方法对储罐进行相对贴近度计算;③根据相对贴近度结果对储罐进行风险排序与分级预警.[结果]以中国西部某原油储备库区4个原油储罐为研究对象进行风险分级预警,TOPSIS评估结果与API 581-2016《基于风险的检验》、EEMUA 159-2017《地上平底储罐:检查维护和修理指南》两种标准的风险评估结果基本一致,可有效预警,且实施便捷、评价指标更为全面.[结论]研究成果能够为罐区巡检、安排储罐大修周期提供合理参考.(图2,表8,参20)
Graded early warning for crude oil tanks based on TOPSIS
[Objective]Given the rise in large-scale and centralized crude oil tanks,along with the physical and chemical properties of crude oil and the intricate nature of tank materials and components,these tanks present substantial risks.Consequently,enhancing the risk management capabilities of tank farms becomes imperative to enable enterprises overseeing routine tank management to acquire a comprehensive grasp of tank conditions.However,the prevailing risk-based inspection technology,mandated by current foreign standards,poses challenges in practical execution,primarily due to the extensive field data requirements.Moreover,there is a lack of impact analysis focusing on tank accessories in the assessment of equipment factors.[Methods]This paper presents a graded early warning system for crude oil tanks,incorporating a model based on the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)to facilitate a comprehensive assessment and graded early warning of tank risks.(1)The established system of tank risk assessment indicators includes 4 primary indicators of human,equipment,environment,and management factors and several secondary and tertiary indicators.(2)The Analytic Hierarchy Process is integrated to assign weights to indicators at different levels,and the TOPSIS method is utilized to calculate the relative proximity of tanks.(3)Risks are ranked to enable graded early warning for tanks according to the results of relative proximity.[Results]The graded early warning of risks was carried out for 4 crude oil tanks located at a crude oil depot in western China.The assessment results closely aligned with those derived from API 581-2016 Risk-based Inspection Methodology and EEMUA 159-2017 Above Ground Flat Bottomed Storage Tanks:A Guide to Inspection,Maintenance and Repair.This alignment proved the efficacy of the proposed system in early warning,highlighting its convenience in execution and its coverage of more assessment indicators.[Conclusion]The study results serve as rational references for tank farm patrol inspections and tank overhaul scheduling.(2 Figures,8 Tables,20 References)

crude oil tanktechnique for order preference by similarity to ideal solutionTOPSISrisk assessmentanalytic hierarchy processgraded early warning

武刚、张庶鑫、罗金恒、李丽锋、徐日、段庆全、王熠凡

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中国石油集团工程材料研究院有限公司·油气钻采输送装备全国重点实验室

中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院

原油储罐 逼近理想解排序方法 TOPSIS 风险评估 层次分析法 分级预警

"十三·五"国家重点研发计划中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目

2017YFC08058042021DJ2804

2024

10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2024.06.005

油气储运
中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司

油气储运

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.094
ISSN：1000-8241
年,卷(期)：2024.43(6)
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