基于LASSO关联规则算法的集输管道主控因素分析
Analysis of Main Control Factors of Gathering and Transportation Pipelines Based on LASSO Association Rule Algorithm
田东海 1蔡其全 2胡俊平 3赵晓龙 3朱伟 4郭志杰 5任春燕3
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油华北油田公司巴彦勘探开发分公司
- 2. 河北华北石油工程建设有限公司
- 3. 中国石油华北油田公司第五采油厂
- 4. 河北华北石油港华勘察规划设计有限公司
- 5. 中国石油华北油田公司开发部
- 折叠
摘要
为找出影响集输管道腐蚀的主控因素,制定了针对性地防护措施.在采集现场数据和多相流稳态模拟的基础上,利用套索算法(LASSO)实现影响因素的筛选,采用Apriori关联规则算法找出腐蚀因素与腐蚀速率、缺陷轴向位置和缺陷分布之间的关系,以确定关联规则信息.结果表明:温度、气相流速、持液率、CO2 分压、Ca2++Mg2+质量浓度、SRB含量等变量是影响腐蚀程度的主控因素;当温度在 40～55℃、气相流速大于 8 m/s、持液率大于 80%、CO2 分压大于 0.08 MPa、Ca2++Mg2+质量浓度大于 200 mg/L、SRB含量大于 100个/mL时,腐蚀最为严重,腐蚀速率大于 0.254 mm/a,为"极严重腐蚀"程度;高温高压反应釜验证了关联规则结论准确性;随着腐蚀缺陷轴向位置越靠近焊缝,腐蚀缺陷的尺寸越小,由轴向缺陷逐步转为环向缺陷,同时出现概率也增大.此算法可为油田生产效益的优化提供技术思路.
Abstract
In order to explore the main controlling factors affecting the corrosion of gathering and transportation pipelines,the targeted corrosion protection measures are formulated.Based on the field data collection and steady-state simulation of multiphase flow,the LASSO algorithm is used to screen the influencing factors.The Apriori association rule algorithm is used to find out the relationship be-tween corrosion factors and corrosion rate,defect axial position and defect distribution,so as to deter-mine the association rule information.The results show that temperature,gas flow rate,liquid hold-up,partial pressure of CO2,Ca2++ Mg2+ mass concentration,and SRB content are the main control-ling factors affecting the corrosion degree.When the temperature is 40-55℃,the gas flow rate is>8 m/s,the liquid holdup is>80%,the partial pressure of CO2 is>0.08 MPa,Ca2++ Mg2+ mass concen-tration is>200 mg/L,and the SRB content is>100 pcs/mL,the corrosion is the most serious,and the corrosion rate is>0.254 mm/a,which is the degree of"extremely severe corrosion".The accuracy of the association rule conclusion is verified by the high-temperature and high-pressure reactor.As the axial position of corrosion defects is closer to the weld,the size of corrosion defects becomes smaller,and the axial defects gradually turn into circumferential defects,and the probability of occurrence also increases.This algorithm provides technical ideas for optimizing the production efficiency of oilfields.
关键词
LASSO/关联规则/集输管道/腐蚀速率/缺陷分布Key words
LASSO/association rules/gathering and transportation pipeline/corrosion rate/defect distribution引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国石油股份有限公司重大专项(2017E-15)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据