天然气管道定量风险评价结果敏感性分析
Sensitivity Analysis of Quantitative Risk Assessment Results for Natural Gas Pipelines
胡贵斌 1陈帝文 1陈啟斌 1王岐振 2白建帮 2梁择文2
作者信息
- 1. 国家管网集团广东省管网有限公司
- 2. 天津中油能源科技股份有限公司
- 折叠
摘要
风险评价可以识别出对管道有危害的因素,对事故发生的可能性和后果大小进行评价,计算风险大小,是管道完整性管理的重要环节.随着天然气管道的不断铺设和城镇建设的不断进行,潜在的风险因素也逐渐增加.运用定量评价方法,对广东省管网某段天然气管道进行了定量风险评价,并模拟分析了压力、管径、周边人口和失效频率等影响因素的变化对风险结果的敏感性.结果表明:对个人风险敏感性的排序为失效概率>运行压力>管径>周边人口;对在社会风险中可能造成的死亡人数在1～10的范围内,敏感性的排序为失效概率>运行压力>周边人口>管径;对在社会风险中可能造成的死亡人数在10～1 000的范围内,敏感性的排序为失效概率>周边人口>运行压力>管径.对敏感性的分析为管道企业制定风险管控措施提供了依据.
Abstract
Risk assessment can identify the factors that are harmful to the pipeline,evaluate the possi-bility and consequences of the accident,and calculate the risk size,which is an important part of pipe-line integrity management.With the continuous laying of natural gas pipelines and the continuous prog-ress of urban construction,potential risk factors are gradually increasing.The quantitative risk assessment of a certain section of natural gas pipeline in Guangdong Province is carried out by using the quantitative evaluation method,and the sensitivity of the influence factors such as pressure,pipe diameter,sur-rounding population,and failure frequency to the risk results is simulated and analyzed.The results show that the order of individual risk sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>pipe diame-ter>surrounding population.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 1-10,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>surrounding popula-tion>pipe diameter.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 10-1000,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>surrounding population>operating pressure>pipe diameter.The analysis of sensitivity provides a basis for pipeline enterprises to formulate risk man-agement and control measures.
关键词
管道/风险/定量风险评价/敏感性分析/风险管控Key words
pipeline/risk/quantitative risk assessment/sensitivity analysis/risk management and control引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
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