Sensitivity Analysis of Quantitative Risk Assessment Results for Natural Gas Pipelines
Risk assessment can identify the factors that are harmful to the pipeline,evaluate the possi-bility and consequences of the accident,and calculate the risk size,which is an important part of pipe-line integrity management.With the continuous laying of natural gas pipelines and the continuous prog-ress of urban construction,potential risk factors are gradually increasing.The quantitative risk assessment of a certain section of natural gas pipeline in Guangdong Province is carried out by using the quantitative evaluation method,and the sensitivity of the influence factors such as pressure,pipe diameter,sur-rounding population,and failure frequency to the risk results is simulated and analyzed.The results show that the order of individual risk sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>pipe diame-ter>surrounding population.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 1-10,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>surrounding popula-tion>pipe diameter.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 10-1000,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>surrounding population>operating pressure>pipe diameter.The analysis of sensitivity provides a basis for pipeline enterprises to formulate risk man-agement and control measures.
pipelineriskquantitative risk assessmentsensitivity analysisrisk management and control
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