Research on Carbon Emissions in Oil and Gas Extraction Industry Based on Improved STIRPAT Model
Under the energy security and dual carbon strategy,China will unswervingly promote oil stabilization and gas increase,strive to maintain crude oil production at 2×108 t/a,and gradually in-crease natural gas production to about 3 000×108 m3/a.In 2020,the CO2 emissions from energy utili-zation in China's oil and gas extraction industry reached 8 758×104 t,facing significant emission reduc-tion pressure under the constraint of the"dual carbon"target.Based on the relevant historical data of China's oil and gas extraction industry from 2010 to 2020,taking full account of the characteristics of the oil and gas extraction industry,eight index parameters related to energy consumption,fixed assets investment,and oil and gas production are introduced to build an improved STIRPAT model.The re-lationship between various influencing factors and carbon emissions is analyzed in combination with ridge regression analysis.The carbon intensity of energy consumption,the scale of energy consump-tion,the carbon intensity of oil and gas production,and the scale of production play an obvious role in promoting carbon emissions,while investment efficiency plays an inhibitory role.Combining the analy-sis results of key influencing factors and fully considering new energy security strategies such as green transformation and stabilizing oil and gas production,scenario analysis method is used to analyze and predict the future carbon emissions,peak carbon emissions,and peak carbon time of the oil extraction industry under four different scenarios.By vigorously developing and utilizing new energy,increasing energy conservation and consumption reduction efforts,the oil and gas extraction industry is expected to achieve carbon peak by 2030,with a peak emission level of approximately 9 015×104 t/a,in line with the industry's carbon peak development plan.Finally,it is recommended that the oil and gas ex-traction industry actively invest in the development of new energy according to local conditions,vigor-ously implement energy-saving and alternative projects,continuously improve investment efficiency,reduce the carbon intensity of investment and production,and ensure that the carbon peak target is achieved as scheduled.
oil and gas extraction industrycarbon emissionsSTIRPAT modelridge regression analysisscenario analysis method
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