In order to understand the extinction risk and predict the future population change trend,we analyzed the popu-lation viability of blue-crowned laughingthrush(Pterorhinus courtoisi)by using Vortex 10.5.0.The effects of different pa-rameters on the population were simulated to explore the main factors limiting the population growth and provide basic data for the conservation and management of this species.The results indicated the extinction probability of this species was 0.73 in the next 100 years,innate rate of increase(R)was 0.1480,instantaneous increase ratio(λ)was 1.1595,net re-production rate(Ro)was 1.5046,and the average generation time of the females and males(T)was 2.76 years under the standard conditions(considering inbreeding and catastrophes).In the sensitivity analysis of nine parameters,the sex ratio,males annual mortality after age 1,and the frequency of predators were the main parameters that affect the change of the population size.Under complex environmental conditions,blue-crowned laughingthrush faces a risk of extinction,and its conservation work are still under great pressure.Increasing the survival rate of male birds will be beneficial to the population growth of this species.
关键词
蓝冠噪鹛/种群生存力分析/Vortex模型/婺源
Key words
Blue-crowned laughingth-rush(Pterorhinus cour-toisi)/Population viability analy-sis/Vortex model/Wuyuan County
维普
万方数据