Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

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外文摘要：Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source infor-mation(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effec-tiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field ob-servations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

外文关键词：

Rainfall-induced landslideSpatial variabilityProbabilistic back-analysisSlope reliability analysisBayesian updating

作者：

Shui-Hua Jiang、Hong-Hu Jie、Jiawei Xie、Jinsong Huang、Chuang-Bing Zhou

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作者单位：

School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Xuefu Road 999,Nanchang,330031,China

Discipline of Civil,Surveying and Environmental Engineering,Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment,The University of Newcastle,Callaghan,NSW,2308,Australia

基金：

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaJiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China

项目编号：

522229055217910320232ACB204031

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1016/j.jrmge.2024.02.008

岩石力学与岩土工程学报(英文版)

中国科学院武汉岩土力学所中国岩石力学与工程学会武汉大学

岩石力学与岩土工程学报(英文版)

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.404

ISSN：1674-7755

年,卷(期)：2024.16(9)