首页|Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

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Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disaster-causing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study system-atically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the ef-fects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Machine learning(ML)Reservoir bank landslideSpatial variabilityTime series predictionFailure probability

Luqi Wang、Lin Wang、Wengang Zhang、Xuanyu Meng、Songlin Liu、Chun Zhu

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School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing,400045,China

Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area,Chongqing University,Chongqing,400045,China

National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas,Chongqing University,Chongqing,400045,China

School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai,519087,China

School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,210098,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaInnovative Projects of Universities in GuangdongSichuan Transportation Science and Technology Project

523083402022KTSCX2082018-ZL-01

2024

10.1016/j.jrmge.2023.11.040

岩石力学与岩土工程学报(英文版)
中国科学院武汉岩土力学所中国岩石力学与工程学会武汉大学

岩石力学与岩土工程学报(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.404
ISSN：1674-7755
年,卷(期)：2024.16(10)