首页|中国与RCEP成员国贸易韧性的时空演进与提升路径分析

中国与RCEP成员国贸易韧性的时空演进与提升路径分析

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通过构建综合指标体系测度中国与RCEP各成员国间的贸易韧性水平,利用随机核密度方法及马尔科夫链探究贸易韧性的时空演进规律,并借助二次指派程序,详细解析不同层面因素对于贸易韧性的驱动影响力.结果表明:2001-2022年,中国与RCEP成员国整体贸易韧性水平呈上升趋势,其中,中国与日本、澳大利亚的贸易韧性水平较高,与柬埔寨、缅甸的贸易韧性有待提高;贸易韧性发展表现出阶段性特征,贸易韧性由较低阶段向上发展较快,达到中高贸易韧性水平后存在固化现象,较难实现短期内跨越式发展;根据研究单元发展状态不同,各因素对于贸易韧性驱动影响力存在异质性.
Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Enhancement Path of Trade Resilience Between China and RCEP Member Countries
This article constructs a comprehensive indicator system to measure the level of trade resilience be-tween China and RCEP member countries,explores the spatial and temporal evolution of trade resilience using the random kernel density method and Markov chain technology,and analyzes the driving influence of different factors on trade resilience using the quadratic assignment procedure to explore the path of trade resilience improvement.The re-suits show that:The results show that from 2001 to 2022,The overall trade resilience level between China and RCEP member countries is on the rise.The trade resilience level between China,Japan,and Australia is relatively high,while the trade resilience between China,Cambodia,and Myanmar needs to be improved;;The development of trade resil-ience shows a stage characteristic.The development is relatively fast from the stage with low trade resilience to the stage with medium to high trade resilience.After reaching a medium to high level,the development shows a solidification phenomenon.It is difficult to achieve leapfrog development in the short term;According to the different development status of the research units,there is heterogeneity in the driving influence of various factors on trade resilience.

RCEPTrade ResilienceEnhancement Path

程云洁、杨淋杰

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新疆财经大学经济学院 乌鲁木齐,830012

RCEP 贸易韧性 提升路径

新疆财经大学丝路经济与管理研究院智库调研项目(2022)新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金新疆高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重点项目

ZKZB220121BJL035XJE-DU2022J020

2024

亚太经济
福建社会科学院

亚太经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.997
ISSN:1000-6052
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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