强美元周期下中国跨境资本流动的风险与应对
The Cross-Border Capital Flow Risks Faced by China and Its Countermeasures under the Strong Dollar Cycle
梁涛 1张春生2
作者信息
- 1. 广东金融学院经济贸易学院 广州,510521
- 2. 广东财经大学金融学院 广州,510320
- 折叠
摘要
分析2015-2019年、2022年以来两个阶段强美元周期影响中国跨境资本流动的典型事实,通过对比这两个阶段,指出未来中国跨境资本流动可能面临流出进一步加剧、流入减少以及外汇储备较大规模流失的风险.考虑到中国经济增速放缓、中美利差倒挂、人民币持续贬值、资产价格大幅下跌、未来经济不确定性进一步增加等国内外环境变化,提出缓解跨境资本流动风险的对策建议:一是继续完善跨境资本流动的宏观审慎管理框架;二是持续提升系统性风险的识别、监测和防范能力;三是重点关注、防范跨境资本通过非管制金融机构流出;四是畅通国内国际双循环,促进跨境资本双向均衡发展;五是加强国际监管合作,构建区域金融安全网.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the typical facts of how the strong dollar cycles in the two phases of 2015-2019 and since 2022 have impacted the cross-border capital flows in China.By comparing these two phases,it points out that China's cross-border capital flows may face the risks of further intensified outflows,reduced inflows and significant depletion of foreign exchange reserves in the future.Considering the changes in domestic and international environ-ments such as the slowdown of China's economic growth,the inversion of China-US interest rate differentials,con-tinuous depreciation of the RMB,significant declines in asset prices and increased future economic uncertainties,this paper proposes an optimized strategy to mitigate the risks of cross-border capital flows,which is different from the past:the first is to,continue to improve the macro-prudential management framework for cross-border capital flows;the second is to,continuously enhance the ability to identify,monitor and prevent systemic risks;the third is to,focus on and guard against the outflow of cross-border capital through unregulated financial institutions;the fourth is to,facili-tate the dual circulation of domestic and international markets and promote the balanced development of cross-border capital in both directions;the fifth is to,strengthen international regulatory cooperation and build a regional financial safety net.
关键词
跨境资本流动/强美元周期/宏观审慎管理/金融安全网Key words
Cross-Border Capital Flows/Strong Dollar Cycle/Financial Safety Net/Macro-Prudential Manage-ment引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY241)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据