The Impact of Deepening Regional Trade Agreements on the Resilience of Global Supply Chains
Using the World Bank database and ADB-MRIO database,this paper constructs regional trade agree-ments(RTAs)depth and global supply chain resilience indexes for 62 economies respectively,and investigates the im-pact of deepening regional trade agreements on global supply chain resilience from the perspective of intermediate goods trade.Our findings show that the deepening of regional trade agreements plays a significant role in strengthening the resilience of global supply chains.From a country perspective,the deepening of regional trade agreements has a more significant impact on the resilience of global supply chains for the economies with similar economic development levels.From a regional perspective,the enhancing effect in Asia is obvious while the enhancing effect is not so obvious in the EU and North America.From the perspective of bilateral political relations,the closer the political relationship,the stronger the enhancing effect is.Mechanism analysis shows that the deepening of regional trade agreements can not only increase the variety and scale of intermediate goods trade by reducing bilateral trade costs,but also benefit enter-prises to establish a compliant supply chain system and improve supply chain resilience by improving the institutional quality of the RTAs members.The paper further finds that the trade diversion effect caused by the deepening of re-gional trade agreements in the third economies is not conducive to improving the resilience of global supply chains.
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