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国际供给冲击对中国国内循环的影响研究

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将中国国内循环嵌入产品内国际分工模型,提出了一个国际供给冲击影响国内循环的理论框架,并拓展分析了作为新质生产力核心要素的科技创新和标准领域的制度型开放在应对国际供给冲击中的关键作用.在此基础上,利用企业和行业层面的数据进行了实证检验.结果表明:国际供给冲击抑制了国内循环发展,表现为降低了企业参与国内循环的规模和国内循环畅通度;中高技术国际供给冲击抑制了国内循环发展,但低技术国际供给冲击对国内循环的影响不明显;科技创新缓解了国际供给冲击对企业参与国内循环规模的不利影响,标准领域的制度型开放缓解了国际供给冲击对国内循环畅通度的不利影响.
Research on the Impact of International Supply Shock on China's Domestic Circulation
This paper embeds the domestic cycle into the model of international division of labor within products,puts forward a theoretical framework of the impact of international sup-ply shocks on the domestic cycle,and expands and analyzes the key role of scientific and tech-nological innovation as the core element of new quality productive forces and the institutional opening-up in the field of standardization in responding to the international supply shocks.On this basis,this paper utilizes enterprise and industry-level data to conduct empirical tests.The results show that:(1)international supply shocks inhibit the development of the domestic cycle,which is manifested in the reduction of the scale of enterprise participation in the domestic cycle and the degree of domestic cycle fluency.(2)Medium-and high-tech international supply shocks inhibit domestic cycle development,but low-tech international supply shocks do not have a significant impact on the domestic cycle.(3)Scientific and technological innovation mitigates the negative impact of international supply shocks on the scale of enterprises'partici-pation in the domestic cycle;and institutional opening-up in the field of standardization miti-gates the negative impact of international supply shocks on the smoothness of the domestic cycle.

International Supply ShocksDomestic CycleInnovationInstitutional Open-up

洪俊杰、杨志浩、商辉

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山东财经大学,济南,250014

中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京,100006

浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心、经济学院,杭州,310018

国际供给冲击 国内循环 创新 制度型开放

2024

亚太经济
福建社会科学院

亚太经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.997
ISSN:1000-6052
年,卷(期):2024.(6)