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中国制造业供需双循环测度及格局演变分析

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基于增加值贸易核算框架,从双重价值链嵌入视角分别测算中国制造业需求端和供给端内外循环发展的动态演变趋势、行业异质性和国际对比情况.研究发现:不管是需求端还是供给端,中国制造业增长主要依靠内循环带动,且内循环带动的主导优势较明显;相对而言,中国制造业低技术行业产出更多来自国内要素投入,高技术行业产出更多来自国外要素投入.中国、美国、日本、巴西等制造业大国依赖国际循环程度相对较弱,新兴经济体在快速增长阶段较依赖外循环的作用,特别是在资本、技术密集型行业.
Measurement and Pattern Evolution Analysis of Supply-side and Demand-side Dual Circulation Development of China's Manufacturing Industry
Based on the accounting framework of value-added trade and from the per-spective of dual value chain embedding,this paper calculates the dynamic evolution trend,in-dustry heterogeneity and international comparison of the internal and external circulation de-velopment of China's manufacturing industry on the demand-side and the supply-side respec-tively.The results show that the growth of China's manufacturing industry is mainly driven by the internal circulation,and the dominant advantage of the internal circulation is obvious.Rel-atively speaking,the output of China's manufacturing low-tech industry comes more from do-mestic factor input,and the output of high-tech industry comes more from foreign factor input.Manufacturing powers,such as China,the United States,Japan,and Brazil are relatively weak in their reliance on the international circulation,emerging economies in the rapid growth stage is more dependent on the role of the external circulation,especially in the capital,technology-intensive industries.

ManufacturingDemand-side Dual CirculationSupply-side Dual Circula-tionDual Value ChainDomestic Value Chain

施贞怀、殷凤、龙飞扬

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中国人民大学书报资料中心经济编辑部,北京,130012

上海大学经济学院,上海,200444

南京审计大学,南京,211815

制造业 需求双循环 供给双循环 双重价值链 国内价值链

2024

亚太经济
福建社会科学院

亚太经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.997
ISSN:1000-6052
年,卷(期):2024.(6)