深部开采地表移动延续时间预测模型及其参数分析
Prediction model and parameter analysis of surface movement duration in deep coal mining
张亮亮 1程桦 2姚直书 1王晓健1
作者信息
- 1. 安徽理工大学土木建筑学院,安徽淮南 232001
- 2. 安徽理工大学土木建筑学院,安徽淮南 232001;安徽大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥 230022
- 折叠
摘要
基于改进Knothe时间模型,根据地表移动延续时间定义,建立能够综合考虑采高、平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度和开采速度等因素的深部开采地表移动延续时间理论预测模型,并根据概率积分法给出了模型参数确定方法.采用24个深部工作面开采地表移动延续时间监测数据对预测模型的合理性和精确性进行验证.结果表明:地表移动延续时间模型预测结果与24个工作面监测结果基本吻合,两者平均绝对误差仅38 d,均方根误差仅为47 d,平均绝对误差百分比仅为9％,远小于现有3种经验模型的预测误差,验证了地表移动延续时间预测模型的精确性;地表移动延续时间受采高、平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度和开采速度的影响,随采高的增加而非线性增加,随平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度的增加而线性增加,但随开采速度的增加而非线性减小.该研究可为深部开采地表移动变形稳定性评估和科学制定开采计划提供理论指导.
Abstract
This paper presents a theoretical prediction model for the surface movement duration in coal mining,which takes into account various factors such as coal seam mining height,average mining depth,loose layer thickness,bedrock layer thickness,and mining speed.The model is based on the improved Knothe time model and incorporates the definition of surface movement duration.Additionally,a method for determining the model parameters using the probability integration method is provided.To validate the rationality and accuracy of the prediction model,monitoring data from 24 deep working faces are utilized.The results demonstrate that the predicted surface movement duration aligns well with the monitoring results from the working faces.The mean absolute error is only 38 days,the root mean square error is only 47 days,and the mean absolute percentage error is only 9％.These values indicate a significantly lower prediction error compared to existing empirical models.The accuracy of the surface movement duration prediction model is confirmed.The study further reveals that the duration is influenced by coal seam mining height,average mining depth,loose layer thickness,bedrock layer thickness,and mining speed.Specifically,it increases nonlinearly with coal seam mining height,linearly with average mining depth,loose layer thickness,and bedrock layer thickness,but decreases nonlinearly with mining speed.This research provides theoretical guidance for evaluating the stability of surface movement and deformation in coal mining and formulating scientifically sound mining plans.
关键词
地表移动延续时间/改进Knothe时间模型/预测/动态沉降/开采速度Key words
surface movement duration/improved Knothe time model/prediction/dynamic subsidence/mining speed引用本文复制引用
基金项目
安徽省高校科研资助项目(2023AH051203)
安徽理工大学高层次引进人才科研启动基金(2022yjrc32)
国家自然科学基金(51874005)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据