高位堆积体远程滑坡动力侵蚀过程量化预测模型

Quantitative prediction model of dynamic erosion process for long run-out accumulation landslides

韩旭东 ¹杨秀元 ²孙秀娟 ²宋伟 ²包一丁 ³王春辉⁴

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作者信息

1. 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心自然资源部三峡库区地质灾害监测预警野外科学观测研究站,重庆 404700;中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心自然资源部地质环境监测工程技术创新中心,河北保定 071051
2. 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心自然资源部三峡库区地质灾害监测预警野外科学观测研究站,重庆 404700
3. 中国科学院山地灾害与环境研究所山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川成都 610041
4. 中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心自然资源部地质环境监测工程技术创新中心,河北保定 071051
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摘要

高位远程滑坡快速解体后,往往形成碎屑流,会沿程动力侵蚀坡体表层第四纪松散物质,改变滑坡滑移动力学特征,导致滑坡体积显著放大,灾害效应强烈,已成为近年来防灾减灾研究的重点.首先,针对高位堆积体远程滑坡动力侵蚀过程量化预测问题,基于深度积分水动力计算理论与固液两相界面剪应力侵蚀模型架构,构建了高位堆积体远程滑坡动力侵蚀过程量化预测的连续介质数值模型,自主进行了数值实现,编制了具有二阶计算精度的软件程序DisasterFlowV1.0.然后,通过经典的溃坝水流算例验证,结果表明所构建的数值模型的数值求解格式正确并具有较好的总变差不增特性(total variation diminishing,TVD).再后,通过对柏杨林高位堆积体远程滑坡案例动力侵蚀过程预测可知,所构建的数值模型与传统雪橇模型对该滑坡滑移速度预测结果基本一致,但相较于传统雪橇模型,所构建的数值模型对滑动路径地形的适应能力强,滑移速度预测值振荡性较小.最后,利用所构建的数值模型在时间和空间维度上对柏杨林高位堆积体远程滑坡的动力侵蚀过程进行量化表达,结果表明所构建的数值模型能够对该滑坡动力侵蚀过程中各历时的滑移深度、速度及侵蚀堆积深度进行量化,这是传统雪橇模型所不具备的.所做研究可充实高位远程滑坡动力侵蚀过程量化预测理论与技术体系.

Abstract

After the rapid disintegration of long run-out accumulation landslides,debris flows are often formed.They dynamically erode the underlying soft materials along their sliding paths and change the dynamic characteristics of landslide movement,which will lead to a significant increase in landslide volume.Long run-out accumulation landslides have strong disaster effects,which has become the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation research in recent years.To address the issue of quantitative prediction of dynamic erosion process for potential long run-out accumulation landslides,a continuum numerical model is constructed based on the depth-integrated hydrodynamic calculation theory and solid-liquid two-phase shear stress erosion model framework.The software program DisasterFlow V1.0 with second-order calculation accuracy is compiled for numerical realization.Through two classic case studies of dam-break flow,the results calculated by the developed model program are highly consistent with the actual situations.The developed numerical solution scheme is correct and has a good total variation diminishing(TVD)behavior.The prediction of dynamic erosion process for the long run-out accumulation landslide in Baiyanglin shows that the developed numerical model and the conventional sled model basically agree with the prediction results of the landslide sliding velocity.Compared with the conventional sled model,the developed numerical model has better adaptability to the terrain of the sliding path,resulting in less oscillation in the predicted values of the landslide sliding velocity.In addition,during the numerical prediction and analysis of the dynamic erosion process for the long run-out accumulation landslide in Baiyanglin,the developed numerical model can quantify the landslide dynamic erosion process in the time and space dimensions,such as quantifying the sliding depth,velocity and accumulation depth in each duration,which are not available in the conventional sled model.This paper provides a feasible quantitative prediction solution of the dynamic erosion process for long run-out accumulation landslides,which could enriches the quantitative prediction theory and technical system for long run-out landslides.

关键词

高位远程滑坡/动力侵蚀/数值模型/DisasterFlow/V1.0/量化预测

Key words

long run-out landslides/dynamic erosion/numerical model/DisasterFlow V1.0/quantitative prediction

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金青年基金(42207229)

中国地调局地质调查项目(DD20221813)

出版年

2024

岩土力学

中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所

岩土力学

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：1.614

ISSN：1000-7598

参考文献量32

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