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中国南海神狐海域水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度分析

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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天然气水合物具有巨大的潜在经济和环境价值,其开发利用对国家能源安全和实现国家碳达峰碳中和的"双碳目标"具有战略意义.我国天然气水合物资源主要分布于南海海域,海洋环境的复杂性和隐蔽性使工程测量数据具有较大不确定性,影响钻井安全.目前未见有水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度研究.为定量评估在我国南海神狐海域水合物储层钻井风险,基于水合物储层钻井井壁稳定解析理论和南海神狐海域具体地质条件,结合可靠度分析方法中的改进一次二阶矩法和响应面法,研究南海神狐海域水合物储层钻井井壁失稳概率分布特征,分析该海域井壁失稳概率及安全钻井液压力窗口对主要参数均值和不确定性的敏感性,结果表明:(1)若测量数据足够精确,在我国南海神狐海域水合物储层进行钻井活动的安全性较高,安全钻井液压力窗口也较大.测量数据的不确定性增大将使井壁失稳概率显著升高,缩窄安全钻井液压力窗口.(2)较低的钻井液温度对降低井壁失稳概率略有帮助,且能明显地扩大安全钻井液压力窗口.(3)5个主要参数的均值和不确定性对井壁失稳概率的影响次序相同,均为初始地应力＞初始内摩擦角＞弹性模量比＞初始黏聚力＞初始弹性模量.实际工程中对初始地应力数据精确测量,能够显著提高水合物储层钻井井壁稳定性.
Reliability analysis of wellbore stability for hydrate reservoirs in Shenhu area of the South China Sea
Natural gas hydrates have significant economic and environmental potential,and their exploitation and utilization are of strategic significance for national energy security and realizing"dual carbon goals"of peak carbon and carbon neutrality.The majority of hydrates in China is distributed in the South China Sea.The complexity and concealment of the marine environment result in highly uncertainty of engineering measurement data,which affects drilling safety.However,there is a lack of reliability analysis for wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs.Based on the analytical model of wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs and the specific geological conditions of the Shenhu area in the South China Sea,the reliability analysis methods including the advanced first-order second-moment method and the response surface method are employed to quantitatively assess the probability of wellbore instability during drilling,and to analyze the sensitivity of the wellbore instability probability and safe drilling fluid pressure window to the mean and uncertainty of the main parameters.The research results indicate that:(1)If the measurement data are accurate enough,the drilling in hydrate reservoirs in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea is highly safe and the safe drilling fluid pressure window is also large.However,the increased uncertainty of measurement data can significantly increase the probability of wellbore instability and narrow the safe drilling fluid pressure window.(2)A lower drilling fluid temperature can slightly reduce the probability of wellbore instability and significantly increase the safe drilling fluid pressure window.(3)The mean and uncertainty of the five main parameters have the same order of influence on the probability of wellbore instability,that is:initial in situ stress＞initial internal friction angle＞elastic modulus ratio＞initial cohesion＞initial elastic modulus.Accurate measurement of initial in situ stress in practical engineering can significantly improve the wellbore stability in hydrate reservoirs.

natural gas hydratewellbore stabilityreliabilityShenhu area in the South China Searesponse surface methodadvanced first order second moment method

黄佳佳、蒋明镜、王华宁

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同济大学土木工程学院,上海 200092

中国能源建设集团浙江省电力设计院有限公司,浙江杭州 310012

同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海 200092

苏州科技大学土木工程学院,江苏苏州 215009

同济大学航空航天与力学学院,上海 200092

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天然气水合物 井壁稳定性 可靠度 南海神狐海域 响应面法 改进一次二阶矩法

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室自主课题海南省重点研发计划项目中国工程科技发展战略海南研究院重大咨询研究项目

1227227451890911SLDRCE19-A-06ZDYF2021SHFZ26421-HN-ZD-02-5

2024

10.16285/j.rsm.2023.0914

岩土力学
中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所

岩土力学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.614
ISSN：1000-7598
年,卷(期)：2024.45(5)
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