Effectiveness Assessment of Ecological Network Protection Pattern Based on Multi-scenario Simulation:A Case Study of Guilin City
Ecological network establishment is an effective measure in maintaining the integrity of the regional ecosystem,alleviating land-scape fragmentation,and limiting urban sprawl.Although some studies have proposed a scale nesting planning approach for the cross-scale connection of ecological networks,the effectiveness of this approach for ecological protection under dynamic land expansion scenarios remains unclear.By setting three constraint scenarios of"no ecological network","non-scale nesting ecolog-ical network"and"multi-scale nesting ecological network",the FLUS model was used to simulate the change of land use pattern in Guilin in 2030,and several landscape metrics were selected to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of ecological network protection pattern from two scales of urban and central urban areas.The results show that:(1)Built-up land was expected to in-crease by 613.85 km2 from 2018 to 2030,with a change rate of46.52％,followed by water area,with an increase of 53.50 km2 and a change rate of 6.42％;(2)The planning policy and scenario setting based on ecological network had obvious restrictions on the expansion of regional built-up land.(2)Under the constraint scenario of a multi-scale nesting ecological network,this inhibitory effect will be further enhanced,and 237.49 km2 of built-up land will increase,with a growth rate of 18.00％;(3)Compared with the non-scale nesting and multi-scale nesting ecological network constraint scenarios,the latter achieved better protection effects on curbing landscape fragmentation and improving landscape connectivity at both city scale and central urban scale.This study reveals the effectiveness of incorporating scale-nesting ecological network establishment schemes into future land expansion dy-namics and mechanisms and provides a reference for guiding regional ecological protection planning and practice and balancing protection and development.
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