Objective To construct a time series model of other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi City and compare the prediction ability of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters model,and Prophet model to provide theoretical references for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi City.Methods The SARIMA model,Holt-Winters model,and Prophet model were established based on the incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021,and the fitting effects of the three models were compared.The root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),and determination coefficient(R2)were used as evaluation indexes to select the optimal model.Results The seasonal index showed that from May to October was the epidemic season of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Urumqi.SARIMA(0,0,3)(0,1,1)12 model fitting index RMSE was 2.54,MAE was 1.56,MAPE was 0.28,and R2 was 0.71.The RMSE,MAE,MAPE,and R2 fitted by the Holt-Winters model were 3.32,2.06,0.33,and 0.54,respectively.The Prophet model fitting index RMSE was 3.37,MAE was 2.15,MAPE was 0.44,and R2 was 0.48.SARIMA(0,0,3)(0,1,1)12 model predicted RMSE was 4.26,MAE was 3.64,and MAPE was 0.46.Conclusion Among the three models,SARIMA(0,0,3)(0,1,1)12 model has the best fitting effect,which can better capture the incidence trend of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Urumqi,and has certain guiding value for the scientific prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Urumqi.
Other infectious diarrheal diseaseSeasonal indexSARIMA modelHolt-Winters modelProphet modelProjectionModel comparison
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
