首页|基于气候变化与人类活动双重作用的南疆水资源供需关系分析

基于气候变化与人类活动双重作用的南疆水资源供需关系分析

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全球变暖致使南疆周边冰川大幅退缩,冰川融水增加,南疆水资源因此增加.人类社会的发展带动生产和生活用水大幅增加.这打破了区域水资源供需平衡,水资源风险愈加突出.根据干旱地区水资源利用特点,考虑气候变化导致的降水、冰川融水和径流的变化趋势,以及南疆人口和经济的发展,结合度日模型、定额需水法、彭曼公式、潜水蒸发法和水压力指数法对南疆三地区水资源压力现状及未来潜在变化进行了评估.研究结果表明:2000～2020年,南疆三地区的可利用水量呈增加趋势;总需水量变化存在地区差异,阿克苏地区和喀什地区显著增加,和田地区则有所减少;南疆三地区水压力均处于较高水平状态,水压力变化趋势与总需水量的变化趋势一致.21世纪30年代和70年代南疆三地区的可利用水量将持续增加;需水量和水压力的变化趋势与历史时期一致.人类取水活动在未来水压力的变化中起主导作用.该研究揭示了区域内水资源失衡的时空分异性,以期为南疆地区的水资源管理和合理利用提供科学参考.
Analysis on the Supply-demand Relationship of Water Resources Based on the Dual Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Southern Xinjiang,China
Global warming has led to significant glacier retreat around the Tarim River Basin and an increase in glacier meltwater.This has resulted in a rise in water resources in southern Xinjiang.Meanwhile,the development of human society has driven a substantial increase in water consumption for both production and daily living.This has disrupted the regional water supply-demand balance,making the risk of water resource stress more prominent.Given the characteristics of water resources utilization in arid areas and taking into account the changing trends in precipitation,glacial meltwater,and runoff due to climate change,along with population and economic development in southern Xinjiang,we employed the water stress index method to assess the current situation and potential future changes in water stress in the three regions of southern Xinjiang.The results indicated the following:the water availability in the three regions of southern Xinjiang increased during 2000～2020.There were regional differences in total water demand,which increased significantly in Aksu and Kashgar region,but decreased in Hotan region.The water stress in the three regions of southern Xinjiang is at a relatively high level,and the variation trend of water stress is consistent with that of total water demand.In the future(2030s and 2070s),the amount of water availability in the three regions of southern Xinjiang will continue to increase;the changing trends of water demand and water pressure are consistent with historical periods.Human water extraction activities will play a leading role in future changes in water stress.This study reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation of water resource imbalances in the regions and provides scientific reference for water resource management and rational utilization in southern Xinjiang.

southern Xinjiangclimate changeglacier meltwaterhuman activityoasis expansioncultivated land increasesupply-demand of water resourceswater resources stresswater stress indexfuture prediction

倪明霞、普拉提·莫合塔尔、孙婷宇、夏建新

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中央民族大学生命与环境科学学院,北京 100081

新疆大学旅游管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830046

南疆 气候变化 冰川融水 人类活动 绿洲扩张 耕地增加 水资源供需 水资源压力 水压力指数 未来预估

国家自然科学基金

41961038

2024

10.16058/j.issn.1005-0930.2024.02.003

应用基础与工程科学学报
中国自然资源学会

应用基础与工程科学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.895
ISSN：1005-0930
年,卷(期)：2024.32(2)
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