首页|气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅶ.青藏高原干旱半干旱区农业气候资源变化特征

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅶ.青藏高原干旱半干旱区农业气候资源变化特征

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基于青藏高原干旱半干旱区1961-2007年55个气象站点地面观测资料,利用五日滑动平均法及GIS软件的IDW模块进行栅格处理,对比分析了研究区1961-1980年(时段Ⅰ)和1981-2007年(时段Ⅱ)各气候要素的时空变化特征及其气候倾向率。结果表明:1961-2007年,研究区喜凉作物生长季内日照时数的变化不明显,喜温作物生长季内日照时数呈增加趋势,但空间分布的变化较小;与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ喜温作物生长季内积温值≥1500℃·d的地区面积扩大33。9%;降水量的空间分布总体表现为由东南低地向西北内陆逐渐递减,研究期间青藏高原东南部喜凉作物生长季内降水量均达到800 mm,其他地区喜凉作物生长季内降水量的气候倾向率有正有负,变幅相对较小,与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ喜温作物生长季内降水量≥400 mm的分布面积扩大了40%;参考作物蒸散量(ET0)总体略有增加,其空间分布格局与日照时数和积温的分布相似,时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ喜温作物生长季内ET0≥400 mm的分布面积扩大了35。7%。研究期间,青藏高原作物生长季内的热量与降水资源有一定幅度增加,这对农牧业生产非常有利,但ET0的增大表明潜在蒸发增大,需进一步加强研究气候变化对该区域农牧业生产带来的可能影响。
Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change.Ⅶ.Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in arid and semi-arid region of Tibet Plateau
Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 55 meteorological stations in arid and semi-arid region of Tibetan Plateau, and by using 5-day moving average method and ArcGISIDW module, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and climatic trend rates of agricultural climate resources in the region in 1961-1980 ( period Ⅰ) and 1981 -2007 ( period Ⅱ) .In 1961-2007, the sunshine duration during the growth season of chimonophilous crops in the study region changed less, while that during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased but with little spatial change.Comparing with those in period Ⅰ, the average value of accumulated temperature in period Ⅱ showed an increasing trend, and the area with ≥1500 ℃ · d during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased by 33.9%.The precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest.During the growth season of chimonophilous crops, the precipitation in the southeast in the two periods reached 800 mm, but the climatic trend in other areas was positive or negative, and the change rate was small.The area with precipitation ≥ 400 mm during the growth season of thermophilic crops in period Ⅱ expanded by 40% , as compared in period Ⅰ.The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo ) generally increased slightly, and shared the similar spatial distribution pattern with sunshine duration and accumulated temperature.During the growth season of thermophilic crops, the area with ETo ≥ 400 mm in period Ⅱ expanded by 35.7% , compared with that in period Ⅰ.In the study period, the heat and precipitation resources during crop growth seasons in Tibet Plateau increased in a certain degree, which was very beneficial to the agriculture-stock production.However, the increase of reference crop evapotranspitation indicated the increase of potential evaporation.Thereby, the researches about the possible effects of climate change on agriculturestock production should be further strengthened.

background of global climate changeTibet Plateauagricultural climate resourcesclimatic trend rate.

徐华军、杨晓光、王文峰、徐超

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中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京,100193

宁夏大学农学院,银川,750021

国家气象中心,北京,100081

中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京,100085

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全球气候变化背景 青藏高原 农业气候资源 气候倾向率

国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)农业公益性行业科研专项国家科技基础性工作专项资金项目

2010CB9515022009030032007FY120100

2011

应用生态学报
中国生态学学会 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所

应用生态学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.114
ISSN:1001-9332
年,卷(期):2011.22(7)
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