Temporal and spatial variations of carbon storage and carbon sink improvement strategy at the district and county level based on PLUS-InVEST model:Taking Yanqing District as an example
Under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the evolution of the spatiotem-poral pattern of carbon storage has recently emerged as a research hotspot.The change in land use and land cover(LULC)is the primary driver of carbon storage changes.Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of LULC and carbon storage at the small scale of district and county level and proposing strategies to improve carbon sink,will contribute to the ecological conservation,restoration and sustainable development of districts or counties.With Yan-qing District in Beijing as an example,we calculated carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 based on the In VEST model and used the PLUS model to predict LULC type changes under three scenarios(natural growth,ecological conser-vation and economic development)from 2020 to 2050.We further predicted the carbon storage and proposed mea-sures to improve carbon sink.The results showed that the key LULC change in Yanqing between 1990 and 2020 were the conversion of 88.9％of grassland to forest,50.1％of farmland to forest,and 39.5％of cropland to imper-vious surface.The total carbon storage showed an upward trend,with an increase of 3.34×106 Mg.The spatial dis-tribution of carbon storage presented"high in the northeast,low in the southwest,and high in the mountainous are-as,low in the riverine areas."The increase in forest and the decrease in grassland were the main reasons for the in-crease and decrease in carbon storage,respectively.Between 2020 and 2050,the ecological restoration efforts un-der the ecological protection scenario increased,and the probability of other LULCs transforming into forest in-creased,resulting in a 5.8％increase in carbon storage,which had the highest increase and carbon storage under the three scenarios.High-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in the northeast,northwest,and south of Yanqing District,basically corresponding to the mountainous regions of Yanqing with high forest coverage,and the low-value areas generally corresponded to the plains with high development intensity and low forest coverage.We could implement comprehensive ecological protection and restoration measures,including forest and grassland eco-system protection,water environment ecological restoration,farmland ecological restoration,to promote sustainable development in Yanqing District and to achieve the"dual carbon"goal.
land use and land cover changecarbon storagePLUS-InVEST modelmulti-scenario simulationYanqing District
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