摘要
全面掌握黑龙江省大豆气候生产潜力演变及其对气候变化的响应特征,可为进一步挖掘高寒地区大豆生产潜力、实现大豆稳产高产提供参考和依据.基于黑龙江省80个气象站1961-2020年的气象资料,采用逐步订正法估算大豆光合、光温和气候生产潜力,利用空间插值、统计分析方法研究其时空特征,分析辐射、气温、降水等气候要素变化对气候生产潜力的影响.结果表明:研究期间,黑龙江省大豆光合、光温和气候生产潜力平均值分别为7533、6444和3515 kg·hmr-2,时间变化上均表现为显著增加趋势,其增幅分别为125.9、182.9和116.1 kg·hm-2·(10a)-1;在空间分布上均表现为平原高山地低、由西南向东北逐渐减少.与1961-1990年相比,1991-2020年大豆气候生产潜力高值区扩大7.1％,低值区缩小5.1％.大豆气候生产潜力对气候变化响应明显,气候变暖致使黑龙江省大豆的潜在温度生长期延长.热量资源持续增加,配合相对充足的降水,有效减缓了光能资源下降对黑龙江省大豆生产的负面影响.未来"暖湿型"气候有利于全方位提高黑龙江省大豆气候生产潜力.
Abstract
A comprehensive understanding of the evolution of soybean climate potential productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province can offer reference and basis for further tapping soybean pro-duction potential and realizing stable and high yield of soybean in the frigid region.Based on meteorological data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020,we estimated photosynthesis,light temperature,and climate potential productivity of soybean by the stepwise correction method,examined the spatio-temporal variations by spatial interpolation and statistical analysis methods,and analyzed the impact of changes in climate factors such as radiation,temperature,and precipitation on climate potential productivity.The results showed that during the study period,the average values of photosynthesis potential productivity(YQ),light-temper-ature potential productivity(YT),and climate potential productivity(YW)of soybean in Heilongjiang Province were 7533,6444,and 3515 kg·hm-2,respectively.The temporal changes of those variables showed significant in-creasing trends,with increases of 125.9,182.9,and 116.1 kg·hm-2·(10 a)-1,respectively.For the spatial dis-tribution,YQ,YT,YW were characterized by high values in plains and lower in the mountains,and gradually de-creased from southwest to northeast.Compared with that during 1961-1990,the high value zone of YW in period 1991-2020 expanded by 7.1％,and the low value zone decreased by 5.1％.YW showed a significant response to cli-mate change.The potential temperature growth period was extended due to climate warming.The continuous in-crease in thermal resources,combined with relatively sufficient precipitation,effectively alleviated the negative im-pact of the decline in light resources on soybean production in Heilongjiang Province.The projected"warm and hu-mid"climate would comprehensively boost climate potential productivity of soybean in Heilongjiang Province.
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