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浙江山区26县绿色转型系统耦合关系的动态演进及驱动因素

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开展绿色"三生空间"协同转型的研究是浙江省山区26县实现跨越式高质量发展的重要任务。本研究基于生态-生活-生产空间视角,采用耦合协调模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链模型和最优参数地理探测器模型等方法,探析2010-2021年浙江山区26县"三生"系统耦合转型的动态演进过程和驱动因素。结果表明:2010-2021年,研究区"三生"系统绿色转型的耦合协调度显著上升,各县域差距呈阶梯状缩小的演化趋势,2016年出现两极分化现象;"三生"系统绿色转型的耦合协调度呈现"东高西低,北高南低"的空间分布格局,空间指向性特征逐渐明显,空间结构演进表现为协同响应的特征;"三生"系统协调转型存在明显"俱乐部收敛"现象,各趋同俱乐部存在较强的稳定性,耦合协调类型在相邻年份较难实现跨越式转移,仍然存在"路径依赖"和自我增强的"锁定效应"。空间滞后因素对耦合协调类型的影响较大,耦合协调度较高的县域较大概率会带动邻近县域向上转移,而耦合协调度低的县域有可能会抑制周边县域耦合协调度的提升;"三生"系统协调转型在2010、2015、2021年分别以社会文明进步为驱动、对外开放和经济发展为驱动、经济发展和科技发展为驱动的变化特征。研究结果对于协同区域生态、生活、生产空间的绿色转型具有重要的支撑价值。
Dynamic evolution and driving factors of the coupling relationship of green transformation system in 26 mountainous counties in Zhejiang Province,China
Understanding the coordinated transformation of green ecological-living-production space is an important task for 26 mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province to achieve leapfrog high-quality development.Following the framework of ecological-living-production space,we analyzed the dynamics and driving factors of the coupling trans-formation of the ecological-living-production system in 26 mountainous counties from 2010 to 2021,based on cou-pling coordination model,kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain model and optimal parameter geodetector model.The results showed that,the coupling coordination degree of the green transformation of the ecological-living-production system had significantly increased,and the gap among counties had shown an evolutionary trend of stepwise narrowing.In 2016,there was a polarization phenomenon.The coupling coordination degree of the green transformation of the ecological-living-production system presented a spatial pattern of"high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south".The spatial directivity characteristics were gradually obvious,while the spatial structure evolution showed the characteristics of collaborative response.There was an obvious"club convergence"phenomenon in the coordinated transformation of the ecological-living-production,and each conver-gence club had strong stability.It was difficult for the coupling coordination type to achieve leap-forward transfer in adjacent years,and there were still"path dependence"and self-enhancement"lock-in effect".The spatial lag fac-tor had a greater influence on the type of coupling coordination.The counties with higher coupling coordination degree had a greater probability of driving the neighboring counties to move upward,whereas the counties with low coupling coordination degree may inhibit the improvement of the coupling coordination degree of the surrounding counties.The coordinated transformation of the ecological-living-production system in 2010,2015,and 2021 was driven by the progress of social civilization,opening up and economic development,economic development and sci-entific and technological development,respectively.Our results had important supporting value for the green trans-formation of collaborative regional ecological,living,and production spaces.

green transformationecological-living-production spacecoupling coordination degreedynamic evo-lutiondriving mechanism

翁异静、杨月、文雁兵

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浙江科技大学经济与管理学院,杭州 310023

浙江省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心浙江科技大学研究基地,杭州 310023

嘉兴大学经济学院,浙江嘉兴 314001

绿色转型 生态-生活-生产空间 耦合协调度 动态演进 驱动因素

2024

应用生态学报
中国生态学学会 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所

应用生态学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.114
ISSN:1001-9332
年,卷(期):2024.35(11)