Simulation and evolutionary trend prediction of temporal and spatial patterns of wintering suitable habitat for Leucogeranus leucogeranus under climate and land use change scenarios
To understand the changes in the distribution pattern of suitable wintering habitats for Leucogeranus leucogeranus under future scenarios of climate and land-use change,we examined the relationship between the wintering distribution of L.leucogeranus and environmental factors based on 72 distributional sites and 10 environmental variables.This approach enabled us to identify potentially suitable habitat distributions and predict their spatiotemporal variations and development trends under future climate and land-use change scenarios.The results indicated that:(1)distance to water,elevation,precipitation of the driest quarter,slope,mean temperature of the coldest quarter,and distance to town were the predominant environmental factors influencing the wintering distribution of L.leucogeranus.(2)Under the current climate and land use scenarios(2020),the highly suitable area for L.leucogeranus covers an area of 1.26 × 104 km2,predominantly located in low-elevation wetlands with mild and humid climates,such as Poyang Lake in Jiangxi,Dongting Lake in Hunan,Longgan Lake in Hubei,Shengjin Lake in Anhui,Yancheng in Jiangsu,and the Yellow River Delta in Shandong,where the terrain is gentle and human disturbance is relatively low.(3)Under the SSP126(low emission),SSP245(medium emission),and SSP585(high emission)scenarios,the suitable habitat area for L.leucogeranus signifiicantly decreased,with reduction percentages for the average area(2050-2090)being 28.69％,34.02％,and 43.22％,respectively.(4)Under future climate and land-use scenarios,suitable habitats(high and medium suitability)for L.leucogeranus underwent substantial contraction and minor expansion.Contraction was concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River wetlands,whereas expansion was observed in Laizhou,Bohai,and Liaodong Bays.(5)Climate and land use jointly contributed to the reduction in the suitable habitat area of L.leucogeranus,with climate,especially the increase in the mean temperature of the coldest quarter,being the primary factor causing the shift of the L.leucogeranus's distribution centroid toward the northeastern high-latitude regions.Overall,climate and land use change will have negative impacts on distribution of L.leucogeranus,leading to the shrinkage and fragmentation of its wintering suitable habitat and increasing its extinction risk.Efforts should be made to strengthen the protection and management of the L.leucogeranus population and its habitat.
Leucogeranus leucogeranusMaxEnt modelhabitat suitabilityclimate changeland use
万方数据
维普
