Prediction for future potential distribution of raptors in Suzhou City based on PLUS and MaxEnt model
Raptors have a significant influence on the maintenance of ecosystem equilibrium.This study aimed to elucidate the implications of evolving land-use dynamics on the potential distribution of raptors.This study employed the PLUS model to simulate plausible land use scenarios for 2030 in Suzhou City in China,encompassing natural development,cultivated land protection,and comprehensive development.Pertinent variables such as prey density(PD)and future climatic conditions were introduced,and land use under these scenarios was posited as a limiting condition.With integration of the MaxEnt model,the simulation predicted the potential distribution of raptors in Suzhou City by 2030 under each scenario.The primary factors influencing raptor density included prey density(PD),land use and land cover change(LUCC),normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and digital elevation models(DEM).By 2030,construction land will expand under all three scenarios,with the fastest rate of expansion observed in the northeastern direction along the main urban area of Gusu District.The current suitable habitat area for raptors within Suzhou City spans 5 000.88 km2,whereas in the year 2030 a certain degree of expansion is anticipated,with the most noticeable augmentation occurring under the comprehensive development scenario.This indicates that the scenario is better suited for raptor habitation.In addition,raptors are predominantly concentrated in five key regions:the Yangtze River Basin,Jiangsu Yushan National Forest Park,Yangcheng Lake Resort Area,Taihu Lake periphery,and the Dianshan Lake Scenic Area.By 2030,a significant reduction is projected in suitable habitat areas of raptors within the Yangcheng Lake Resort Area and Dianshan Lake Scenic Area.The results suggest that the enhancement of protective measures is required for peripheral agricultural land and wetlands within these regions in conjunction with existing policies.In light of these findings,this study stresses the significant impact of land-use change caused by different development dynamics on potential raptor distribution.Regulating the expansion rate of construction land and mitigating the environmental impacts during construction in surrounding areas is crucial.This study is anticipated to provide valuable scientific support for raptor,cultivated land,and wetland conservationists in future urban development endeavors.
raptorMaxEnt modelPLUS modelpotential distributionland-use changeSuzhou City
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