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一类具有资源约束的SIS流行病模型的随机动力学

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为研究环境随机性对流行病传播动态的影响,利用随机微分方程组构建了一类具有资源约束的随机易感者-感染者-易感者(SIS)流行病动力学模型.首先,通过构造Lyapunov函数,证明了随机流行病模型全局正解的存在性和唯一性;其次,采用数值模拟仿真分析了流行病在不同场景下的灭绝概率和灭绝时间.研究结果表明,环境随机性的强度与流行病的灭绝概率呈正相关关系,与流行病的灭绝时间呈负相关关系.特别地,当感染者规模接近吸引盆地的边界时,流行病更容易发生灭绝.该理论框架可拓展到其他流行病模型的研究中.
Stochastic dynamics of an SIS epidemic model with resource constraints
To investigate the influence of environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of epidemic spread,a stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible(SIS)epidemiological model with resource constraints is constructed by using stochastic differential equations.Firstly,the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solutions of the stochastic epidemic model are proven by construc-ting Lyapunov function.Utilizing numerical simulation methods,the probability and duration of epidemic extinction are analyzed under various scenarios.The results show that the intensity of environmental stochasticity is positively correlated with the extinction probability of epidemic,and negatively correlated with the extinction time of epidemic.Specifically,when the scale of infectives approaches the boundary of an attractor basin,epidemic extinction is more likely to occur.The theoretical framework proposed in this study can be extended to the study of other epidemic models.

epidemic modelextinctionenvironmental stochasticityresource constraints

李争意、冯涛

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扬州大学数学科学学院,江苏扬州 225002

流行病模型 灭绝 环境随机性 资源约束

江苏省自然科学基金扬州大学大学生科创基金项目江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目

22KJB110006XCX20230237数学与应用数学PPZY2015B109

2024

扬州大学学报(自然科学版)
扬州大学

扬州大学学报(自然科学版)

影响因子:0.473
ISSN:1007-824X
年,卷(期):2024.27(2)
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