葡萄霜霉病流行传播模型和扩散规律研究
Spatial spread gradient model and short-range expansion of grape downy mildew
于舒怡 1李柏宏 1刘丽 1王辉 1关天舒 1刘长远1
作者信息
- 1. 辽宁省农业科学院植物保护研究所,辽宁沈阳 110161
- 折叠
摘要
为明确葡萄霜霉病流行空间传播动态规律,对葡萄霜霉病的传播梯度和空间分布进行定时定株系统调查.应用OriginPro 2019软件中曲线方程拟合程序分别构建病害的直向和多向传播梯度模型,并推导获得病害最大传播距离和传播速率.结果表明,沈阳地区葡萄霜霉病初期病株集中在菌源中心附近,且单株病情指数偏低;随后菌源中心四周病株的病情指数急剧增加,且水平方向上单株病情指数呈现明显钟罩状分布.病害直向传播曲线呈中心式传播.Exponential模型是病害直向传播梯度的最佳模拟模型.病害在平行于(或垂直于)垄向的传播呈现典型的偏正态分布,由于风向和风速的不同,发病中心分别向北向和东向发生了 一定的偏移.病害多向传播梯度呈钟罩状非对称分布,Gaussian曲面模型是拟合病害多向传播的最佳模型.利用Exponential模型可较准确预测出东、西、南和北4个方向上的最大传播距离为19.3～41.1 m,日均传播速率为0.18～0.45 m/d.
Abstract
This study investigated the spatial dynamics of grape downy mildew epidemics by analyzing the spread gradient and spatial distribution of grape downy mildew in a field plot in Shenyang from 2018 to 2019.The direct and multi-directional spreading gradient models of the disease were constructed using the curve equation fitting program in OriginPro 2019 software.The obtained model parameters can describe the spatial dynamics of the disease epidemic in different directions and dimensions.The distance and rate of disease spread were deduced using the exponential model.The results showed that the initial grape downy mildew-infected plants were primarily located near the center of the pathogen source,and the disease index of a single plant was low.However,the disease index of the surrounding plants increased markedly,demonstrating a bell-shaped distribution in horizontal spread.The disease spreaded directly from the center.The exponential model was determined to be the optimal model for the direct spread gradient of the disease in the field.The spread of the disease in the direction parallel,or perpendicular,to the ridge showed a skewed normal distribution,with the disease center shifted to the north and east of the field.This shift was attributed to differences in wind direction and speed.The disease multidirectional spread gradient was bell-shaped and asymmetrically distributed,and the Gaussian surface model was found to be the most suitable for describing the multidirectional spread gradient in the field.The exponential model accurately predicted the maximum distance in the east,west,south,and north directions to be between 19.3-41.1 meters,and the average daily spread rate to be between 0.18-0.45 meters per day.
关键词
葡萄霜霉病/空间动态/模拟模型/传播梯度Key words
grape downy mildew/spatial dynamic/simulation model/spread gradient引用本文复制引用
基金项目
辽宁省农业科学院农业绿色高质量发展项目(2021HQ1903)
辽宁省农业科学院学科建设计划(2022DD082412)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据