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基于改进神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测方法

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光伏发电系统的输出功率受多种因素(包括天气、电池板温度和日照时长等)制约,表现出显著的随机、波动和间歇性特点,对电力系统的稳定运行构成了威胁.为此,提出基于改进神经网络的光伏电站输出功率预测方法,对电力系统的调度、优化以及能源管理具有重要意义.首先,进行了光伏电站输出功率影响因素的相关性分析,选择总辐照强度和环境温度这2个与光电转换效率有显著相关的因子,并以此为输入;然后,构建了改进神经网络模型;最后,通过该模型实现了光伏电站输出功率的预测.结果表明,利用改进的神经网络对光伏发电系统的出力进行了精确的预测.改进神经网络模型可以基本反映出输出功率的大体趋势,在处理复杂多变的天气条件和电站运行状态时,能够更精准地预测输出功率.
Method for Predicting Output Power of Photovoltaic Power Stations Based on Improved Neural Networks
The output power of photovoltaic power generation systems is constrained by various factors,including weather,panel temperature,and sunshine duration,exhibiting significant random,fluctuating,and intermittent characteristics,poses a theat to the stable operation of power systems.Therefore,the proposed method for predicting the output power of photovoltaic power stations based on improved neural networks is of great significance for the scheduling,optimization,and energy management of power systems.Firstly,a correlation analysis was conducted on the factors affecting the output power of photovoltaic power stations.Two factors,total irradiation intensity and ambient temperature,were selected as inputs that are significantly correlated with the photoelectric conversion efficiency.Then,an improved neural network model was constructed,and finally,the prediction of the output power of the photovoltaic power station was achieved through this model.The results show that the improved neural network has been used to accurately predict the output of photovoltaic power generation systems.Improving the neural network model can basically reflect the general trend of output power,and can more accurately predict output power when dealing with complex and variable weather conditions and power plant operation status.

output power predictionphotovoltaic power stationsrenewable energyimproved neural networks

邓森

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国家电力投资集团江苏电力有限公司,江苏 南京 210003

输出功率预测 光伏电站 可再生能源 改进神经网络

2024

自动化应用
重庆西南信息有限公司

自动化应用

影响因子:0.156
ISSN:1674-778X
年,卷(期):2024.65(17)