The changes between multiple power loads affect the normal operation and coordinated management of the integrated energy system.Therefore,a short-term prediction method for multiple power loads under comprehensive energy access is proposed.Using Copula theory,analyze the nonlinear characteristics between multiple power loads and influencing factors,and form a multivari-ate time series.Input it into the least squares support vector machine model to complete short-term prediction of multivariate power loads.Using the fruit fly optimization algorithm to optimize the prediction model,obtain the best prediction results,and achieve short-term prediction of multiple power loads.The experimental results show that when the penalty coefficient is 0.4 and the search dis-tance is 5,the optimal short-term prediction of multiple power loads can be achieved,with a mean square error of 0.6％-2.5％.This indicates that the proposed method has good prediction performance and provides support for the operation and management of the comprehensive energy system.
关键词
综合能源接入/多元电力负荷/短期预测/耦合特性/时间序列/非线性
Key words
integrated energy access/multiple power loads/short term forecast/coupling characteristics/time series/nonlinear
维普
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