Advances in the Methodologies on Carbon Neutrality Assessment,Prediction and Projection
The large amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activities has caused a variety of adverse impacts,and to mitigate these adverse impacts,several countries have proposed carbon neutrality targets.Carbon neutrality assessment,prediction and projection are the scientific basis for achieving carbon neutrality targets,and accurate estimate of carbon emissions and removals is the key to carbon neutrality assessment,which can help policy makers formulate policies to reduce emissions and increase sinks.In this paper,the estimation methods of carbon emission and carbon removal,as well as the principles and characteristics of prediction and projection methods are reviewed,with a view to providing methodological references for accurately assessing the carbon neutrality status and for predicting and projecting the possibility and roads to achieve carbon neutrality targets under future scenarios.The estimation methods of carbon emissions can be divided into three categories:the carbon emission accounting methods used to support the carbon trading market,the consumption-oriented carbon emission estimation methods and the carbon emission measurement methods based on the factor decomposition method;The first two methods are mainly used for the inventory of historical carbon emissions,and the third method can be used for the projection of carbon emissions.The estimation methods of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink can be divided into three categories:statistical model method,mechanism model method and remote sensing model method;The first method is the earliest applied but the estimation result is rough,the second method includes lots of models but the estimation results have great uncertainty,and the third method has a large observation range but lacks the prediction and projection ability.In recent years,the model analysis methods has been widely used in the assessment,prediction and projection of carbon neutrality.
万方数据
维普
