首页|基于Joinpoint回归模型的2004-2022年湖南省梅毒流行趋势分析

基于Joinpoint回归模型的2004-2022年湖南省梅毒流行趋势分析

Joinpoint regression analysis on trends of syphilis reported incidence rate in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2022

扫码查看
目的 分析2004-2022年湖南省梅毒流行趋势变化特征,为梅毒防控工作的开展提供依据.方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统获取2004-2022年湖南省梅毒病例报告资料,拟合Joinpoint回归模型,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC).结果 2004-2022年湖南省梅毒报告发病率由1.94/10万上升到 38.93/10 万(AAPC=17.46%,Z=12.82,P<0.001),分 2 个时间段分析显示,2004-2010 年、2010-2022 年 APC分别为49.08%(t=12.94,P<0.001)、4.26%(t=3.86,P=0.002).其中,一期与二期梅毒报告发病率由1.67/10万上升到2.67/10万(AAPC=1.44,Z=0.51,P=0.608),分3 个时间段分析显示,2004-2012 年、2012-2016 年、2016-2022 年 APC分别为 26.59%(t=10.38,P<0.001)、-27.53%(t=-3.09,P=0.010),-5.54%(t=-1.62,P=0.134);三期梅毒报告发病率由0.01/10 万上升到 0.12/10 万(AAPC=10.86%,Z=2.29,P=0.022),分 2 个时间段分析显示,2004-2010 年、2010-2022 年APC 分别为 42.02%(t=3.17,P=0.007)、-2.05%(t=-0.54,P=0.600);隐性梅毒报告发病率由 0.20/10 万上升到 36.13/10万(AAPC=30.86%,Z=10.81,P<0.001),分 2 个时间段分析显示,2004-2010 年、2010-2022 年 APC 分别为 88.51%(t=10.37,P<0.001)、9.03%(t=4.04,P=0.001);胎传梅毒报告发病率由 5.97/10万下降到0.64/10万(AAPC=-12.05%,Z=-5.36,P<0.001),分 2 个时间段分析显示,2004-2012 年、2012-2022 年 APC 分别为 48.47%(t=9.83,P<0.001),-42.15%(t=-19.08,P<0.001).男性梅毒报告发病率由 1.93/10万上升到 39.87/10万(AAPC=17.02%,Z=13.19,P<0.001),分 2 个时间段分析显示,2004-2010 年、2010-2022 年 APC 分别为 44.20%(t=12.49,P<0.001)、5.42%(t=5.15,P<0.001);女性梅毒报告发病率由1.96/10万上升到37.94/10万(AAPC=17.79%,Z=12.31,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为53.42%(t=13.09,P<0.001)、3.21%(t=2.76,P=0.015).10~19岁组、20~49岁组、≥50岁组梅毒报告发病率AAPC分别为25.53%(Z=15.39,P<0.001)、14.54%(Z=11.56,P<0.001)、22.81%(Z=11.05,P<0.001).结论 2004-2022年湖南省梅毒报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,但增幅逐渐下降.其中一期与二期梅毒、胎传梅毒报告发病率以2012年为转折点由升转降,三期梅毒、隐性梅毒报告发病率总体呈上升趋势.湖南省梅毒防控工作应重点关注男性、青少年人群、中老年人群.
Objective To investigate the trends of the reported incidence rates of syphilis from 2004 to 2022 and to provide a scientific reference for the control and prevention of syphilis in Hunan Province.Methods The reported syphilis cases have been retrieved from the National Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System from 2004 to 2022.The trends of the reported incidence rate of syphilis,annual percent change(APC),and average annual percent change(A A PC)were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model.Results From 2004 to 2022,the reported incidence rate of syphilis increased from 1.94/105 to 38.93/105(AAPC=17.46%,Z=12.82,P<0.001).The APC during the periods 2004-2010 and 2010-2022 were 49.08%(t=12.94,P<0.001)and 4.26%(t=3.86,P=0.002),respectively.Among all reported cases of syphilis,the reported incidence rate of primary and secondary syphilis increased from 1.67/105to 2.67/105(AAPC=1.44%,t=0.51,P=0.608),the APC during the periods 2004-2012,2012-2016,and 2016-2022 were 26.59%(t=10.38,P<0.001),-27.53%(t=-3.09,P=0.010)and-5.54%(t=-1.62,P=0.134),respectively.The reported incidence rate of tertiary syphilis increased from 0.01/105 to 0.12/105(AAPC=10.86%,Z=2.29,P=0.022),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 42.02%(t=3.17,P=0.007)and-2.05%(t=-0.54,P=0.600),respectively.The rate for latent syphilis also increased from 0.20/105 to 36.13/105(AAPC=30.86%,Z=10.81,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 88.51%(t=10.37,P<0.001)and 9.03%(t=4.04,P=0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of fetal syphilis decreased from 5.97/105 to 0.64/105(AAPC=-12.05%,Z=-5.36,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2012,2012-2022 were 48.47%(t=9.83,P<0.001)and-42.15%(t=-19.08,P<0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of male syphilis increased from 1.93/105 to 39.87/105(AAPC=17.02%,Z=13.19,P<0.001),and theAPC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 44.20%(t=12.49,P<0.001)and 5.42%(t=5.15,P<0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of female syphilis increased from 1.96/105 to 37.94/105(AAPC=17.79%,Z=12.31,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 53.42%(t=13.09,P<0.001)and 3.21%(t=2.76,P=0.015),respectively.The AAPC was 25.53%(Z=15.39,P<0.001)for the 10-19 years old group,14.54%(Z=11.56,P<0.001)for the 20-49 years old group and 22.81%(Z=11.05,P<0.001)for the group over 50 years old.Conclusions The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Hunan Province exhibited an overall upward trend,with the increase rate gradually decreasing.The reported incidence rate of primary and secondary syphilis and fetal syphilis transitioned from rising to falling,with 2012 as the turning point.However,the tertiary and latent syphilis demonstrated a continuous upward trend.Interventions should be targeted at males,adolescents and elderly individuals.

syphilisjoinpoint regression modeltrend

张静航、高守芝、郑军、陈曦、贺健梅

展开 >

湖南省疾病预防控制中心,长沙 410005

梅毒 Joinpoint回归模型 趋势

湖南省疾病预防控制中心"青荷"青年培育基金

QHJJ2023019

2024

中国艾滋病性病
中国性病艾滋病防治协会

中国艾滋病性病

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.292
ISSN:1672-5662
年,卷(期):2024.30(3)
  • 10